The inter-governmental body, in its first full outlook for the 2019-20 (FY20) season, which begins on October 1, saw global production falling by 2.35 per cent to 171.98 million tonnes (mt), while consumption will rise by 1.34 per cent to 176.74 mt.
“The fundamentals provide some grounds for cautious optimism concerning future dynamics in world prices,” the ISO said. Production in India is seen falling to 28.3 mt in FY20, from the previous season's 33.0 mt, while in Thailand output will drop to 12.9 mt from 14.4 mt.
The ISO noted that consumption growth was expected to be below the 1.8 per cent average seen up to 2016-17. “A considerable part of losses in consumption growth rates can be attributed to a slowing in global population growth, but the data on per capita consumption also shows a descending trend,” it said. The ISO forecast a surplus of 1.72 mt for the 2018-19 season which finishes at the end of this month.