5 factors that shaped RBI's inflation forecast and 6 key risks

Besides a normal monsoon, the inflation path, according to the RBI, will be shaped by five factors

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) slashed repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6 per cent in its First bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement for financial year 2019-20 (FY20). The central bank, however, has assumed the monsoon to be normal this year. 

Recently, private weather forecaster Skymet had forecast below-normal monsoon rains during June-September, with a 15 per cent chance of a drought. READ ABOUT IT HERE

Consumer price inflation (CPI) projection, as a result, has been revised downwards to 2.4 per cent in Q4FY19, 2.9-3 per cent in H1FY20 and 3.5-3.8 per cent in H2FY20, with