Oil market: Muddle of contradictions as traders size up prospects for 2020

As prices stick to a narrow range near $40 a barrel, some of the biggest commodity houses, including Vitol Group, Trafigura Group, and Mercuria Energy Group, have diverging views about what's next

China’s oil stockpiles are near a record despite the return of traffic jams and rising industrial activity. America’s inventories are slumping even though people don’t seem to be driving much. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allied producers are still withholding millions of barrels from the global market to avert a glut, but there are indications some exporters are wavering in their commitment to the pact.

The oil market, whipsawed by some of the most violent ups and downs in its history in the first of half of the year, is a muddle of