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Commodity outlook by Tradebulls Securities:Buy crude, natural gas

Expect rupee to trade in a range of 71.60-72.40 in the near term

Bhavik Patel  |  Mumbai 

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Representative Image

Indian Rupee: For the past three trading session, the has traded in a subdued note. The range is getting smaller which means we might see a breakout from range soon. Trend still looks weak for the rupee as a majority of EM currencies are weakening against US Dollar. may only trade strong if it manages to close below 71.50 levels. Expect rupee to trade in a range of 71.60-72.40 in the near term.

Gold: The current situation is that neither sentiment nor fundamentals are conducive to substantial strength in the gold price. The Fed has stalled its easing cycle and is not likely to lower rates again until almost a year from now. Yet the gold market continues to prove itself to be rather resilient. Gold has managed to break last week’s high of 1,475. Monday and Tuesday also we could see gold feeling selling pressure near $1,475. Delay in US-China signing is giving some jitters to and equity are trading at a record high so they are vulnerable to a pullback. Gold speculators are cutting bullish bets. The VIX in US market shows top is near as whenever it comes near 12, the correction has been seen. First resistance for gold in COMEX is seen at $1,493.00 and then at $1,500.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,463 and then at Monday’s low of $1,455. In MCX 38,600 is strong resistance as it has made not breached that level since 3rd October. It is trading in a range of 37,700 to 38,330. If Gold once again breaks above 38,300, one can go long till 38,600.

Silver has made bottoming out pattern near 43,900-43,600 and is now trading at the higher end of the range. It has broken the resistance zone of 44,700-44,800 and now if it manages to close above that level, we could see more upside till 45,500.

market also continues to be rather resilient. Next support comes at 4,030 and 3,975 while resistance is at 4,180-4,200. Sell-off in on Tuesday was because of Reuters report that Russia may not agree to deeper cuts at the December OPEC+ meeting. Brent market recovered smartly after reaching towards 50-day EMA showing bulls are able to garner support near psychological support of $60 which continues to be massive support, as it is not only large, round and psychologically significant figure but also the most recent low from where we saw massive buying. Crude has once again managed to close above 4,000 levels which is 50 per cent retracement taken from the recent swing high of 4,158 and low of 3,825.


Recommendations

Buy Crude | TGT Rs 4,220 | Stoploss Rs 3,950

has managed to close above 50 per cent retracement of 3,990 taken from the recent swing high of 4,158 and low of 3,825. On a daily scale, it has managed to close above 200 EMA. We are seeing a crossover of 20 and 50 EMA which again points to a bullish trend. RSI_14 is above 55 and price action has negated ‘bearish belt hold’ pattern. So buy near 4,020 for the expected target of 4,220 and stoploss of 3,950 on a closing basis.

Buy | TGT: Rs 198 | Stoploss Rs 170

has made ‘harami’ candlestick pattern after fall from 205 to 179.20 indicating downside pressure has subsided and we may again see a reversal from here. RSI_14 has bounced from 49 to 51 so clearly, an oscillator is also pointing to a reversal in trend. has also taken support near 200 DMA in recent correction so we would recommend buy at Rs 182 for the target of Rs 198 and stoploss of Rs 170.


Disclaimer: Author may or may not have positions in the above mentioned stocks

First Published: Fri, November 22 2019. 07:48 IST
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