Investors pricing in Modi win in 2019; oil, rupee among key concerns: UBS

Investors have priced in a “Modi win in 2019” as the base case and expect India’s economic growth to gain momentum in financial year 2018 – 19 (FY19), albeit with widening macro stability risks (inflation, current account deficit and fiscal deficit), suggests a recent report by UBS.

The report, authored by Tanvee Gupta Jain, UBS’ economist, also highlights the key near-term risks investors are concerned about. Investors, it says, have also questioned the trends in household savings and the local flows in the backdrop of demonetisation.

“In the near term, investors remain concerned about a sharp global crude oil price