Do stock market and monsoons make a match? Here is what data says

Correlation between IMD's April predictions and calendar year returns on S&P BSE Sensex is -0.34, suggesting monsoons have had limited effect on market returns for a given year

The India Meteorological Department on Monday predicted rains at 96 per cent of the long period average. Markets have seldom moved in line with rainfall, shows an analysis of past years' data.

For example, above normal rainfall in 2011 (98 per cent of long-period average predicted, actual was 102 per cent) coincided with a 24.6 per cent calendar year decline in the S&P BSE Sensex. A shortfall in rains in 2014 (95 per cent predicted, actual was 88 per cent) coincided with a 29.9 per cent gain in the index.

The correlation between the India Meteorological Department’s April predictions and