Vaccine hopes fuelling high Asia equity valuations; future returns doubtful

Asia’s spectacular stock rally this month, fueled by hopes of a Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough, has lifted valuations to the highest in more than a decade.

The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index is trading at about 16 times estimated profits for the next 12 months, a level unseen since the years surrounding the global financial crisis.

Investors could be overpaying for future cash flows today, according to Sanford C. Bernstein strategists led by Rupal Agarwal, adding that data from the last 30 years showed investors faced negative, or at best, 2 per cent to 5 per cent annualised returns over the next five to 10 years whenever the index’s P/E exceeded the current level.