A warning to India

Climate concerns must feature in all aspects of public policy

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the group of climate scientists who together evaluate periodically the consensus among experts of the effects and status of climate change. Its Sixth Assessment Report has just been released, and it makes for grim reading for the world in general and for India in particular. Since the fifth report, the consensus has firmed up, and the IPCC reports that the evidence is now “unequivocal” that anthropogenic — human-caused — warming is in effect, and that temperatures have already risen 1.1 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution, when humans increased the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The report has specific warnings, however, for South Asia and India. The Indian Ocean is warming faster than the global average, and snow cover in the Himalayas is decreasing. 

India is among the countries most exposed to the effects of global warming. Its coastline is under threat from rising sea levels and an increasing number of cyclones and other extreme weather events; its hilly regions are exposed to an increasing number of landslides. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh have already seen loss of life in landslides this season, and as glacial runoff increases and cloudbursts become more intense, landslide risk will increase. It is imperative that this fact feeds into development plans in the region. Both hill states have become the focus of dangerously intense highway-building projects. These must be re-evaluated in the light of emerging climate science. For India’s densely populated plains, the greatest danger will be heat and humidity stress. The number of days with temperatures over 40 degrees Celsius will increase proportionately with the average temperature. For those who conduct manual labour in the sun — still a large proportion of India’s workforce — this presents a real threat to life. India chronically under-reports heat deaths; this must change going forward if the government is to build up a true picture of the effect of warming on public health.
 

Policy responses must not be limited to collecting better data about the effects of climate change on Indian lives and livelihoods. Greater action is needed both on mitigation of carbon emissions and adaptation to warming. On mitigation, technological and financial factors have already scaled up India’s transition to renewable energy. The government must not stand in the way of this natural process by continuing to subsidise coal-fired thermal power plants, for example. Current cropping patterns and agricultural practices also contribute greatly to India’s carbon footprint, and over the next decade they will have to be addressed, alongside greater reforestation to serve as traps for carbon.

Adaptation will need more out-of-the-box thinking. Climate-smart agriculture is already being trialled across the country, but the changing weather patterns warned of by the IPCC report mean farmers will need access to the latest advice and methods. The revival of the agricultural extension system is overdue, and is the only weapon in India’s arsenal when it comes to adaptation in the primary sector. Urban planning will also have to shift. For residents of Indian cities, walking in the sun must be de-emphasised going forward in the planning. Metro and electrified bus systems will have to be put in place that have a denser network of stops than are currently common in India. Climate change has to be at the heart of planning and policy across multiple domains going forward.