As the exit from the lockdown unfolds — interrupted in many places by the re-imposition of short lockdowns — many speak hopefully of green shoots springing up. Others talk of a V-shaped or U-shaped recovery.
We need to be clear about what “recovery” means. When people talk of a recovery, they mean the reversal of the shrinkage in output that is happening at the moment. If output drops by 5 per cent for the year as a whole after dropping by, say, 20 per cent in the first quarter, that points to a recovery in the next three quarters.
Any sign that
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