Behind the curve

Absolute number of Covid-19 cases continues to grow rapidly

As India this week relaxed some restrictions of a nationwide lockdown, which was more stringent than in most countries around the world, the state of affairs on the number of Covid-19 cases isn’t encouraging. While the government has been focusing in its pronouncements on the declining rate of doubling, which is good, the number of cases/day has continued to climb. In the first 21-day lockdown, the number of cases went up from 500 to 11,500; in the second 19 days, from there to 42,500. The number has risen to 46,711 since then. Given the absolute increase in numbers from one period to the next, there is not much to take comfort from the slowdown in the rate of doubling of confirmed cases. Incidentally, India’s record is unlike most other countries with a significant number of cases, in that they saw the number of cases peak and then decline, in some cases sharply. The exceptions, along with India, are Russia and Peru, while others (the US and Canada) have plateaued. 

If India doesn’t plateau soon, the number of cases will balloon. It now has half the number of cases reported by China; that gap could close quite quickly. On the positive side, the country still has low ratios for positive cases/tests, and a low death rate, both well below the global average. The recovered cases have also climbed. With people, companies, and state governments — all wanting to get back to a semblance of normalcy, endorsed by this newspaper as necessary after 40 days of a harsh lockdown — the overall outlook for the containment of numbers is not encouraging. That’s because the high growth rate of 6.1 per cent over the past week despite the lockdown has pushed India’s cumulative case tally and hence the spike is a matter of concern.

As the lockdown is eased, it is clear that unless this entire weeks-long period is to be wasted, a great deal will have to be done to ensure that there is no subsequent explosion of the infection. The government will have to be pro-active in imposing and removing restrictions at a local level, based on the infection data. Behavioural change will also have to be stressed through campaigns for citizen awareness on issues like social distancing, wearing masks, and personal hygiene. This is far from impossible, but there have been too many recent counter-examples of behaviour that do not conform to these norms to be sanguine. For example, after liquor shops opened on Monday following a long gap of 40 days, thousands of impatient customers in serpentine queues — some stretching up to 3 km — jostled and pulled at each other to get hold of their brands, in total defiance of social-distancing norms. The mad rush triggered traffic chaos, police action, political slugfest, and fears of a spike in Covid-19 transmissions. While understanding the importance of social distancing has been conveyed to Indians, unless it is at the top of the mind of everyone, containing the virus could become difficult, which will directly affect economic activity in the coming weeks and months. India is not in a position to remain in lockdown mode for an extended period.