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The sharp cuts in vaccine supply projections are baffling

In its recent affidavit to the Supreme Court, the government has revised its figures for vaccine supply before the end of this calendar year. Earlier, in May, Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan, in an official briefing, had said that 2.1 billion vaccine doses would be made available between August and December 2021. In this latest affidavit, however, the government has committed to only 1.35 billion. The first figure from Mr Vardhan and others included some optimistic projections for as yet untested vaccines, such as a nasal vaccine from Bharat Biotech, and the Supreme Court affidavit does not include these. But both include figures for a vaccine candidate from Zydus Cadila, which has not been approved yet, so the basis for inclusion or exclusion is not clear. Nor is this exclusion of some vaccines the only difference: The new projections suggest 250 million fewer doses of the Serum Institute’s Covishield will be available, for example. Either way, the drastic reduction has affected confidence in the government’s management of vaccine manufacturing.

From the government’s point of view, it is being forced to defend its vaccine distribution policy — which is in the domain of the executive — to the judicial branch. It is no coincidence, surely, that the affidavit’s projection for the number of vaccines required for every adult in India — just under 1.9 billion — is almost exactly the same as the affidavit’s projection for the number of vaccines that will be made available by then, if 516 million doses produced by July 31 are added to the 1.35 billion between August and December. This is an odd and exact coincidence, one that is beyond the realms of probability. In the absence of more credible explanations and greater transparency about supply, many observers will conclude that the figures, as presented, are merely wishful thinking in order to project that a particular target will be met at exactly the promised time.

There are other questions raised by the affidavit. For one, the 400 million doses of Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin being promised between August and December have to reckon with other figures in the affidavit that suggest that only 28 million doses of the vaccine had been supplied till June 12, against the order of about 80 million doses. It’s not clear how quickly Bharat Biotech will be able to increase production to fulfil its supply obligation. The government is reported to have taken up the supply issue with Bharat Biotech. Its inability to increase production would affect the overall vaccination programme and the government will not be able to attain the stated target.

The vaccine roll-out must continue to be the government’s priority but it cannot continue to provide a picture of vaccine supply that is at odds with reality and is constantly being revised. The public should be allowed to recognise the constraints under which the government is seeking to manage the vaccine roll-out programme, including supply constraints. It may be necessary soon to ensure the implementation of a liberalised regulatory and legal regime for vaccines that have external regulatory authorisation, and to plan for booster shots. If the government gives a clear picture of supply constraints now, it will be in a better position to defend its decisions later.