Brexit in limbo

Ms May has not served UK's best interests

As the UK gets ready for yet another vote on Brexit on March 19, the only certainty that can be predicted is more uncertainty. With a mandate from Parliament to extend the Brexit deadline from March 29, Prime Minister Theresa May is bracing herself to bring her third Brexit deal to vote. This vote is required ahead of the European Union summit of March 21-22, where she will appeal for an extension of Article 50, the withdrawal notification. The outcomes of both events on the Brexit timetable are, however, open questions. It is hard to see why she should win another vote on the same deal when many Conservative MPs defied the party whip to hand her one of the largest defeats in parliamentary history just last week.
 

Indeed, nothing seems to have materially changed. The “Irish backstop”, which keeps the UK in the EU until a new agreement, remains the point of fierce contention. The backstop has created turmoil because it potentially commits the UK to a customs union with the EU without any say in rule-making — that is, if the UK and the EU do not reach an agreement by December 2020, when the pre-negotiated transition period ends. This defeats the purpose of Brexit in the first place. Ms May insisted that the new deal she negotiated with the EU — after her first deal was defeated in January — offered assurances that the backstop would not be imposed indefinitely, only to be contradicted by the Attorney General.

The short point is that Ms May has not served the UK’s best interests, as she claims. The country is in a bind, more so now that MPs have voted strongly against a second referendum. First, she set an extremely challenging deadline for Brexit — just two years. Then she inexplicably called elections, which whittled the Conservative majority so drastically that she is forced to depend on the Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to stay in power, which has led to the complication of the backstop. Third, she has refused to accommodate cross-party talks with the Opposition, which may have won her more support.

Much now hinges on the upcoming EU summit. By one interpretation, the extension can last only till May 23; any delay beyond that would require the UK to participate in the elections for the European Parliament (EP), which begin on that day. By another, the deadline could extend to July 2, when the new EP members take their seats. Ms May appears to be banking on the latter date, assuming it will give her more time to sell her unpopular deal. On the whole, the issue is now so wide open that no one can say with any assurance where Brexit is headed. Meanwhile, the Centre for European Reform has shown that the British economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would have been had the Remainers won the Brexit vote. The chancellor of the exchequer has revealed that the country is scheduled to spend a stupendous £4.2 billion on Brexit negotiations. All economic modelling has shown that the UK will be worse off outside the EU. It’s literally Mayday for Europe’s second-largest economy.