Continuity in Japan

Shinzo Abe's resounding victory augurs well for India

Those who closely follow Japan’s politics frequently refer to the “Abe conundrum”. Jeff Kingston of Temple University in Tokyo explains it as Mr Abe winning one election after another despite being “basically unpopular with voters”. The stunning victory in Sunday’s election – the Mr Abe-led Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its allies crossed the two-thirds majority mark in Parliament – further reinforced this long-standing puzzle. In fact, a sustained dip in Mr Abe’s public approval ratings, which fell below 30 per cent, and a series of minor scandals and political embarrassments, had forced him to call for snap polls. Mr Abe was aware that the rest of the Opposition was coming together under the banner of a new political party, Kibou no To (the Party of Hope), led by the governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike. In the end, Mr Abe’s call for a snap poll just four weeks ago upstaged the Opposition, which had little time to get its act together. This confused the voters who chose to stay put with Mr Abe for the sake of stability.

The win is a humongous political achievement for Mr Abe, who, if he stays in office until 2021, will become Japan’s longest-serving premier. The average tenure of Japanese prime ministers since the Second World War has been just over two years. In fact, in the six years preceding his taking over as the PM in 2012, Japan saw six prime ministers, including a year-long stint by Mr Abe himself. However, he left the Democratic Party of Japan, as it was known then, and resurrected his career by returning to power in 2012 on the plank of national renewal. A key element of this national renewal was an economic turnaround, which he has been able to deliver largely. The economy has now grown for six straight quarters for the first time in over a decade. That has led to job creation – unemployment is at its lowest since the mid-1990s – and the overall optimism is reflected in the stock market being at a 21-year high.

The other crucial aspect of national renewal is a change in Japan’s pacifist constitution. The unexpectedly large political majority now makes it possible for Mr Abe to realise his ambition to revive Japan’s military. This shift may not be a bad idea as the battle lines are becoming increasingly clear in the Asia Pacific region. There is China, which under Xi Jinping makes no bones about its unfettered ambitions to dominate. Then there is an unpredictable North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, who keeps provoking Japan, risking an escalation. The perceived decline of the US as the one power to balance all odds accentuates the situation. For India, Mr Abe’s consolidation of power augurs well for several reasons. Japan under him has been openly on India’s side even during the recent Doklam face-off with China. As such, Japan’s political stability only helps India’s cause in the region. Besides, India can look forward to continuity, as Mr Abe has been a reliable partner in defence, trade and infrastructure.