Fresh Covid worries

Mr Mandaviya has his task cut out as the threat of a third wave is real

The Union Health Ministry has pointed out that in many parts of the country, the weeks-long decline in the number of new Covid-19 cases has plateaued — and that, in fact, in some places the curve has bent upwards again. Kerala and parts of Maharashtra in particular, which were the early warning signals of the second wave of the pandemic in India, have once again seen a rise in cases. The north-eastern states are also enduring a similar increase. There is a real danger, therefore, that a third wave is imminent— even sooner than was earlier predicted. Unlike before the second wave, the Union government this time is very aware of the situation. The prime minister pointed out on Tuesday that “we cannot compromise even a bit”. He went on to point out that infectious surges could occur because of “inattention, carelessness, overcrowding” and so “at every level, every [precautionary] step is taken seriously”, and that “events with more crowds” should be stopped. Some chief ministers have also spoken out similarly, with Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray warning weeks ago that “reckless” behaviour could bring on a third wave. Yet, as one senior official in the Union government complained, Covid-19 warnings are being treated “like weather updates”.

One of the lessons of the pandemic globally, however, has been that while it is necessary for political leaders and government officials to exhort the general public about Covid-appropriate behaviour, that may not be sufficient. In India, certainly, recent scenes of overcrowding in markets and at remote hill stations have revealed that there is a significant component of the country unwilling to abide by Covid-19 norms. Under such circumstances, it may be necessary to reimpose restrictions, or at least prevent large gatherings. The Uttarakhand government, which permitted the Kumbh Mela when the second wave was threatening, has learned from its error and the new chief minister has disallowed the Kanwar Yatra, in which water from the Ganga is taken by pilgrims to villages across north India. The chief minister correctly said that he had no desire to see Hardwar become the epicentre for the third wave. Other state governments have not been so careful. The Supreme Court on Wednesday asked the Union government and the Uttar Pradesh government why the latter was not taking similar measures against the Kanwar Yatra. A more uniform and responsible approach is needed.

The best prevention against a third wave is, of course, vaccination. But here the Union government is not performing as well as could have been hoped. Hopes of the country accelerating its vaccination programme have been dashed by the performance in July so far, with average daily vaccination dipping below 4 million last week. This middling performance keeps postponing further the prospect of herd immunity. State governments that have been complaining that their vaccine stocks have been running low became the subject of harsh criticism by the new Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya, who accused them of “creating panic”. This was not really an encouraging start to his tenure. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin had claimed that the vaccine allocation to his state of about 300 doses per 1,000 eligible residents was inadequate, and smaller than the equivalent provision for several other states such as Gujarat and Karnataka. The government needs to, first, do more to increase supply — including by removing legal impediments to vaccine imports — and then achieve consensus on a transparent formula for inter-state allocation.