Growth recovery visible; sentiment poor

Policy actions could be increasingly populist in nature as the BJP drives towards getting re-elected

The Q3 GDP data indicates that there is some sort of growth recovery. In turn, this suggests that the impact of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation is easing off. Growth through 2018-19 should be better. There are caveats. The banking system looks to be under severe stress. The fiscal deficit is likely to expand. The US president may also just have triggered a trade war that cuts into optimistic projections for global growth.

The October-December 2017 quarter saw GDP growth running at 7.2 per cent. This is the highest since July-September 2016. The growth rate for July-September 2017