Heat alert

No apparent impact, but March weather crucial for wheat

Regardless of the risks posed to the wheat crop by unusually warm weather at this time of the year, agricultural scientists have not given up hope of a good harvest, which would ease pressure on supplies and prices of this key staple cereal. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the temperature to be two to five degrees Celsius above normal in the major wheat-growing states but only for a few days. This stress, experts feel, can be taken care of through agronomic interventions like light irrigation and field mulching. The most critical period when any abnormal spike in temperature can prove truly hazardous for wheat is March because the crop is usually in its grain-filling stage at that time. Last year, the heat wave in that month had depressed wheat productivity by 2.5 per cent due to the shrivelling of grains, pushing up wheat prices to above the minimum support price level and denying the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and other agencies to meet their wheat-procurement targets. This year, the government has been amply cautious and, as a pre-emptive move, set up a high-level inter-ministerial committee of officials and farm experts to constantly monitor the crop and weather situation and issue timely advisories for the farmers to cope with the contingencies. The IMD’s more worrisome warning about the ensuing summer to be more intense, marked with severe heat waves, and the likely emergence of the monsoon-inimical El Nino, is irrelevant for the wheat crop, which would be harvested much before the onset of the monsoon in June.
 

As of now, the standing crop is reported to be in excellent shape. Moreover, thanks to an increase in the planted area, comfortable availability of yield-boosting inputs, and absence of any major pest or disease, the overall crop outlook is fairly upbeat. Indications are that production might well be close to the projected all-time high of 112 million tonnes. However, the fingers still need to be kept crossed because anything can happen between now and the harvesting of the crop in April.
 

Nevertheless, the most critical issue at hand is the management of food inflation, which has been fuelled partly by the high prices of cereals. The government has sought to rein it by banning exports and releasing grains from the public stockholding at concessional rates. The FCI has already been authorised to offload 5 million tonnes of wheat in the market from its grain depots spread across the country. But the impact of this move on domestic retail prices of wheat has so far been only marginal though the state reserves have dipped to their minimum level since 2017. The government can, obviously, ill-afford to let the public stocks be drawn down further without facing problems to meet the needs of the vast public distribution system and welfare schemes. However, driven chiefly by the exigencies of taming inflation, the government’s wheat-price management policies seem to have got tilted towards the consumer to the detriment of the producer. If this trend is allowed to persist till the arrival of the new crop, it could prove counterproductive by hurting the wheat farmers. The government, therefore, needs to strike a balance between the interests of the consumer and the grower, who has to make additional investment to save the crop.