Letter to BS: Here are Karnataka Assembly elections prospects

The election result in Karnataka assumes added political significance for the explicit reason that it will be construed as a gauge of the national mood and as a pointer to the 2019 general election. The three possibilities the declaration of election results can throw up are: the Congress will cross the halfway mark and form the government headed by Siddaramaiah (pictured); the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will get a simple majority and form the government headed by B S Yeddyurappa; and Janata Dal (Secular) will play the kingmaker extending support to either the Congress or the BJP in the event of a hung Assembly.

The party which crosses the halfway mark is sure to regard the achievement as a popular endorsement of its policies and programmes and as a morale booster in the run-up to the 2019 general election. In a hung Assembly scenario, the JD(S) will hold the key to government formation. It is not yet clear whether the unconcealed anti-BJP stance of pre-poll allies Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party and Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen and H D Deve Gowda’s threat to “disown” his son Kumaraswamy, in case he opts to join hands with the BJP, will stop the party with a secular tag from supporting the saffron outfit. The Congress keeps all options open in case it falls short of numbers on its own. Siddaramaiah’s announcement that he is fine with a Dalit CM has to be read in this context.

A Congress victory would demonstrate that Siddaramaiah’s “social coalition” comprising Dalits, tribals, backwards and religious minorities and his social welfare schemes worked to its favour. It would further signal that people have begun to reject the appeal made on the basis of religion and vote on bread-and-butter issues. A victory for the saffron party, despite skewed nationalism and with the Reddy brothers representing corruption in tow, would establish that Modi’s blitzkrieg and visits to temples in Nepal on the polling day paid off. A loss for the BJP or even a split verdict would indicate Modi’s dwindling popularity.

G David Milton   Maruthancode

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