Modi-Trump meet in US: Pursuing national interest is the safest bet

Narendra Modi’s first meeting with Donald Trump on Monday has a low-key aura, principally because the maverick nature of the United States’ 45th President has set the bar low in terms of expectations. Will Mr Modi be able to replicate the personal rapport he enjoyed with Barack Obama, reversing the deterioration of Indo-US relations in the last days of the United Progressive Alliance? Although they are deemed to have many things in common, Mr Trump’s erratic policy stances — radically reversing some or depending on doubtful facts for others — add a serious element of uncertainty to India’s negotiating position on a range of issues, from H1B visas to fighter aircraft, cross-border terrorism and climate change. The nomination of Kenneth Juster, a top White House economic advisor, signals that the administration does attach some significance to the Indian relationship. In the main, however, the signals from the new administration have been opaque. 

The hardening position on H1B visas, which impacts Indian IT firms in a major way, and a factually incorrect accusation of India and China as irresponsible emitters that are seeking foreign aid to implement their climate change commitments point to challenges in the relationship. On the other hand, the Trump administration’s tougher stance on Pakistan suggests opportunities for closer cooperation on cross-border terrorism. But a broader strategic framework of cooperation is likely to be elusive. Mr Trump’s two known positions (as on date) is that he views foreign relations in transactional terms and job-creation remains his principal domestic preoccupation. Mr Modi has already successfully signalled his stance of pursuing neutral national interest in the multi-polar world that is emerging as a result of Mr Trump’s America First agenda. On recent visits to the Europe and Russia, he conspicuously iterated India’s intention of outstripping its climate commitments and signalled closer cooperation with Vladimir Putin on nuclear power technology. 

Last week, the opening of a direct shipping line to Qatar to deliver relief supplies following the blockade by the US-allied Gulf Cooperation Council underlines this broad message. At the same time, plans for a joint Indo-US-Japan naval exercise off the coast of Malabar this year, slated as the biggest such initiative, implies closer military ties and the opportunity to play the role of balancing power against regional alignments that China is building through its One Belt One Road initiative. On the one point of convergence in their domestic agenda — employment — the road may be tricky and it is important for the prime minister to get Mr Trump listen to facts. For example, on H1B visas, on which some back-channel negotiations have been under way, it will fall on Mr Modi to explain to the president the job-enhancing potential in America of this much-maligned programme. Mr Trump is likely to push for F16 fighter jet purchases to get Lockheed Martin’s Texas assembly line moving again, whereas Mr Modi’s defence acquisition plans hinge on his signature Make in India programme. How the twain will meet remains a truly open question and may well come down to personal chemistry.