Prediction-addiction, despite being in a fog

We are usually wrong in our predictions about the economy and market, especially since we bring in our own biases to fill the vast gaps in our information. And yet, we cannot help but predict

After Covid came, India went into one of the severest lockdowns in the world. Movement was severely constrained, only essential services were open and many segments of the economy remain shut or severely restricted even today. As a result, the growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP) for the April-June quarter, as expected, turned out to be horrific — a contraction of 23.9 per cent, which was worse than the most bearish estimate. GDP is expected to suffer a further contraction of 10-12 per cent in the next quarter (July-September). If this proves correct, we would be officially in a