 "Illustration by Binay Sinha")
Does anybody believe that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) of Saudi Arabia, with his quasi-absolute power, and the harsh penalties incurred for not following his orders strictly, was not involved in the atrocious murder of Jamal Khashoggi? Obviously, very few around the world would. The string of accurate revelations from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey — based on wiretaps of the Saudi consulate in Istanbul — have forced Riyadh to go from one implausible version of the events to another, prompting President Donald Trump to label it as "The worst cover up in the history of cover ups”.
The assessment of the American CIA, as reported last week by The Washington Post, is said to have concluded that the crown prince had ordered the killing of Khashoggi. In fact, the closest adviser to MBS, Prince Saud Al Qahtani, tops the list of the 17 people on whom the Trump administration has imposed sanctions; and the Saudi prosecutor who is seeking the death penalty for eleven people involved in the murder of Khashoggi has indicated that “a former advisor” to MBS met with the leader of the team of killers before they left for Istanbul.
So, the big question now is whether MBS will be able to survive politically what President Trump called “a total fiasco”. It has been some time since the rash initiatives of the heir to the Saudi throne have raised concerns, whether it is his brutal four-year-old war against the Iran-supported Houthis in Yemen, which is turning into Riyadh’s Vietnam, or his detention of Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri, or his blockade of Qatar, or his unnecessary and damaging spat with Canada, or indeed his detention of the Royals and business leaders at the capital’s Ritz Carlton and the exacting of huge fines from them under the guise of fighting corruption — which raised serious questions about the reliability of the kingdom as a destination for much sought-after foreign investment. Could, then, the Khashoggi drama prove to be the last straw?
Illustration by Binay Sinha
Some American senators think so and threaten sanctions. Many European leaders also consider that the crown prince has become “toxic”. This is not, however, what will determine his political fate. First, for all practical purposes, he has all the levers of power in his hands, especially the control of the military, the Royal Guard and the security and intelligence services; second, he has so efficiently decimated all potential centres of competing power— starting with his cousin Mohammad Bin Nayef , the earlier crown prince and former head of the security apparatus — that there is no obvious alternative to him. And there is no sign that his father, the King, is distancing himself from MBS, quite the contrary; third, whatever his actions, MBS remains popular among the Saudi middle-class urban segment thanks to his liberalisation of the country’s social norms such as ending the ban on cinemas and giving women the freedom to drive. The majority of the Saudis would be afraid of the instability and uncertainty created by the upheaval at the top of the royal family.
As important as these factors are, the crucial fact is that the Trump administration has no intention to push for a change in leadership in Riyadh. From the very beginning, it has put all its bets on the crown prince as the central anchor of its Middle East strategy and will continue doing so, overcoming any objection from the Congress. Of course, President Trump or Vice President Mike Pence have expressed the expected condemnation of the savage murder of a journalist whose only crime was that he had written columns critical of the policies and ruling style of the man in power in Riyadh. However, the White House will continue to use any pretext for considering that the direct involvement of MBS is not solidly proven. It will thus continue to support him and work closely with him, taking just some peripheral measures that will not affect his position — such as sanctions against the members of the team of murderers, or the cessation of the in-flight refuelling by US Air force of Saudi military jets in missions over Yemen.
President Trump did not leave much uncertainty about his position when he stated last Saturday that Saudi Arabia has been “a truly spectacular ally in terms of jobs and economic development.” However, two strategic reasons beyond the crude mercantilism explain why MBS has many supporters in the White House — Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of the president, and John Bolton, the National Security Adviser, being the most significant ones. For one, jointly with Israel, Saudi Arabia is a key player in containing Iran’s expansionary designs and even achieving the regime change in Tehran that many in the Trump administration desire. The other reason lies in the assumption that Riyadh’s support will be crucial for success of the US plan for a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians that Mr Kushner is trying to put in place. The contours of such a plan, although, remain quite mysterious, and many doubt whether this will be the silver bullet to end seventy years of conflict.
Does that mean that the crown prince has a free ride after the murder of Khashoggi and the fiasco of the whole episode? Not really. The Trump administration is using this opportunity to push its own agenda in Riyadh. As such, the US is pushing to ensure that there are no more rash initiatives; that a way is found to end the war in Yemen which is proving to be an unmitigated disaster (indeed, there are some signs of movement in this direction already); that a modus vivendi with Qatar (the host of the largest American base in the Middle East) is reached; that the crown prince moves faster towards fulfiling his commitment to buy up to $100 billion worth of American weaponry; that Riyadh will keep oil prices stable by adjusting its production to neutralise any impact that the US sanctions against Iranian oil exports might have.
As a ruthless ruler, the crown prince knows that the logic of geopolitics prevails on many other consideration when dealing with heads of countries that have oil and/or money, or nuclear weapons or are strategically located. He also knows that although his reputation is badly damaged the outrage about the savage murder of Khashoggi will slowly fade away as the giants of global finance and business are no less eager than before to tap into the business opportunities that his country has to offer. This is both sad and unpalatable, but this is what realpolitik is. And realpolitik is as alive as in any other time in history.
The writer is President of Smadja & Smadja, a strategic advisory firm. @ClaudeSmadja
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