The government’s approval of the full privatisation of Air India has raised expectations that the disinvestment of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) may be carried out effectively and as planned before the end of this financial year. Yet there are broader questions about the management of the fuel economy that must be asked at this point. The biggest question surrounds the management of the prices of petrol, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas or LPG. The fact is that, while these prices have technically been freed up in recent years, in the same period price changes have often been put on hold in times of political sensitivity, such as before a crucial Assembly election. There is little doubt that the three state-controlled oil marketing companies (OMCs) continue to be given pricing guidance by the Union government, even if the administered price mechanism has been wound down and companies allowed to set their own prices at the pump.
A successful bidder for BPCL will want to set prices to maximise profits — and, indeed, would be justified in expecting that the broader market for fuel is not being undermined by government policy towards the two other OMCs. At the moment, given the global run on the price of crude oil and high domestic taxes, the old problem of “under-recoveries” — an enforced per-unit loss on sale of petrol, diesel and LPG — seems to have re-appeared. OMCs are not only having to manage under-recoveries, according to reports, on every litre of petrol and diesel sold, but also have to deal with a loss of Rs 100 or so on every gas cylinder sold in the household retail market. This system cannot be allowed to endure beyond the disinvestment of BPCL. If a profit-seeking BPCL sets a cost per litre that is in keeping with commercial reality, it will find itself undercut by OMCs that continue to take direction from the government on pricing, which naturally would create an unsustainable market. The household LPG market is even more problematic, with the government insisting that mandated prices for cylinders will stay; and the government yet to reimburse OMCs the sums they have lost under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, which add up to Rs 3,000-4,000 crore.
A successful bidder for BPCL will want to set prices to maximise profits — and, indeed, would be justified in expecting that the broader market for fuel is not being undermined by government policy towards the two other OMCs. At the moment, given the global run on the price of crude oil and high domestic taxes, the old problem of “under-recoveries” — an enforced per-unit loss on sale of petrol, diesel and LPG — seems to have re-appeared. OMCs are not only having to manage under-recoveries, according to reports, on every litre of petrol and diesel sold, but also have to deal with a loss of Rs 100 or so on every gas cylinder sold in the household retail market. This system cannot be allowed to endure beyond the disinvestment of BPCL. If a profit-seeking BPCL sets a cost per litre that is in keeping with commercial reality, it will find itself undercut by OMCs that continue to take direction from the government on pricing, which naturally would create an unsustainable market. The household LPG market is even more problematic, with the government insisting that mandated prices for cylinders will stay; and the government yet to reimburse OMCs the sums they have lost under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, which add up to Rs 3,000-4,000 crore.

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