The Covid curve

Primary responsibility for containing the virus is now with society

India entered the list of top 10 countries on the number of Covid-19 cases this week. Since the number of new cases continues to increase, the country is not yet at the cusp after which things start getting better. The rate of doubling may be coming down, but most countries have crossed the next hurdle when the daily count declines. India is yet to get there. If cases double again in the next 15-20 days, India could well have the fourth-largest number of cases in the world. There are two additional points of worry. First, the positivity rate has risen sharply. Second, the declarations that 200-plus districts have not been affected may turn out to be negative as migrants return to states and districts that have few cases. The geographical spread could lead to a spurt in cases. Indeed, this may have already started.

The positive side to the story is also two-fold. One is the rising percentage of recoveries, and the second is the low number of deaths — though this may partly be on account of under- or mis-reporting. At some stage, if the numbers grow large enough, the health infrastructure will become overwhelmed. Already, states are commandeering more and more private hospital beds, but there is a limit to this. There has been a sharp improvement in the rate of tests, and the supply of masks and other protective equipment, but the fact is that the testing rate per million remains among the lowest in the world. Even as India is ramping up facilities, it will take time to test a sizable proportion of population.
 

So, what should be done, especially when the lockdown is being lifted in stages, as had to be done? It is not possible to keep the economy shut for an extended period. Also, it is now clear that even the strictest lockdown can only perhaps slow the transmission and is not a perfect solution. Therefore, the primary responsibility for containing Covid-19 now moves from the state to society, but people’s awareness of or adherence to their social responsibilities such as social distancing and other precautionary measures remains low, as can be seen by visiting any market or public space. What is needed is perhaps a more aggressive public information campaign to create awareness about the pandemic and to drive home the point about social distancing and other precautionary measures to help contain the transmission. While the state has an important part to play, members of the civil society can take on the role of providing information to people with the help of technology.  Meanwhile, the state must continue its drive to improve the overall capacity for dealing with the crisis. The medical infrastructure in some states is under pressure and needs more focused attention.

Finally, in getting to restart the economy, India must avoid chaos and confusion of the kind that accompanied the re-starting of domestic flights on Monday. As it is, there is still a lot of confusion on the ground and businesses are reluctant to reopen because of the lack of clarity about rules and punitive provisions of the Disaster Management Act. It is important to ensure that the pandemic doesn’t take India back to the permit raj.