The prediction by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) that summer will set in early this year and will be harsher than normal has ominous implications. It also calls for advance planning to mitigate its adverse consequences. Maximum temperatures in most parts of the country, barring the southern peninsula, are projected to remain over 1 degree Celsius above normal with frequent and relatively more intense heat waves between March and May. If this prognosis holds true, which seems quite likely considering the good track record of the IMD’s previous summer heat predictions, it will be the third consecutive year of unbearably hot summers after back-to-back droughts in 2014 and 2015. In fact, the temperatures have already begun to shoot up, hovering around 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal in several regions. Excessive heat can have wide-ranging consequences, costing the economy dearly. It can lower crop yields, especially that of wheat which is highly sensitive to a premature spike in temperature in March; deplete water resources, which are already stressed due to poor winter rainfall; affect power availability by pushing up demand and curtailing hydel power production; depress milk yield of cattle; and threaten human health, causing heat-induced illnesses and death. Labour productivity, too, tends to dwindle during acute summers.
Water scarcity is amongst the most worrisome potential fallouts of a searing summer. This year, the water level in reservoirs is already low. As of March 1, the total water stock of the 91 main dams monitored by the Central Water Commission was 11 per cent short of last year’s corresponding level and 9 per cent below average. Moreover, the total winter rainfall has been deficient by as much as 64 per cent in the country as a whole and 67 per cent in the key north-western agricultural belt. Though there are signs of a moderate La Nina condition (deemed favourable for the monsoon), yet the IMD has refrained from drawing any conclusion about its impact on the next monsoon. This is perhaps because it is likely to start weakening from May-end, prior to the onset of the monsoon. Even if the moderate La Nina leads to good rainfall, the relief will accrue only in the rainy season and not in the pre-monsoon dry season when it is needed the most.
Area-specific action plans are, therefore, imperative to combat heat-related contingencies. Ahmedabad had prepared a “heat action plan” in 2010 when a 47-degree Celsius heat wave had taken 700 lives. Implementation of this plan helped restrict casualties to 20 under similar conditions in 2015. Civic authorities in other states should take a cue from measures such as putting up drinking water kiosks in public places; setting up day shelters; changing school timings; and most importantly, rescheduling water release from reservoirs to facilitate its judicious and economical use. The work timings of labour, too, can be readjusted to provide longer breaks during blazing afternoons. In agriculture, development and use of heat tolerant crop varieties needs to get priority. The science of genetic engineering can help prepare Indian agriculture to face unkind summers without any significant erosion in productivity.
