 "Karnataka Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa")
B S Yediyurappa, the battle-scarred Karnataka chief minister, is up against yet another daunting test in two weeks from now, when 15 Assembly seats go to the by-polls. The by-elections on December 5 have been occasioned by the resignation of 17 Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) legislators who defected to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which toppled the year-old Congress-JD(S) coalition, and installed a government led by Yediyurappa. The schedule for the remaining two seats, Maski and RK Nagar, has not been announced.
By all accounts, the by-polls, which should ordinarily favour an incumbent government, ought to have been a breeze for the BJP but for a disconcerting trend: Tickets have gone to the turncoats, provoking resentment among the BJP’s former contestants, some of whom justified their claims on the grounds that they lost the 2018 election narrowly. The upshot is that in half-a-dozen seats or more, the BJP’s old-timers-turned-dissidents have filed nominations against its official candidates. “I can understand the leadership’s compulsion to reward the defectors who helped install us in power. But can we sidestep our old-timers?” asked a Karnataka office-bearer.
The BJP’s internal assessment was it would pull off a minimum of seven seats, if not more. A party leader’s take was, “If we win seven, our government will be safe because that’s the number we require for a simple majority. We will be comfortable if we get nine seats and if we win 11, we will be in a happy place.”
As the withdrawal deadline approached, the BJP’s only consolation was Shivalinga Shivacharya Swami of the Kabbina Kanti Mutt, an influential Lingayat pontiff whom the JD(S) fielded from Hirekerur (Haveri district) against B C Patil, a migrant to the BJP from the Congress, withdrew his papers on the clergy’s behest. In quite a few seats, BJP rebels refused to yield.
Take Hoskote (Bengaluru-Rural), which went to a former Congressman, MTB Nagaraj, instead of the BJP claimant, Sharath Bachegowda. Sharath, secretary to the Karnataka BJP youth front and son of Chikkabalapur MP BN Bachegowda, filed his nomination as an Independent. He was expelled but sources said the move was intended to warn Bachegowda senior, who refused to canvass for Nagaraj. “Hoskote is a serious worry for us,” said a Karnataka minister.
In Gokak — one of the three seats in Belagavi district polling with Athani and Kagawad — the Congress and the JD(S) have reportedly resorted to a joint strategy to defeat the former Congress legislator, Ramesh Jarikiholi, now in the fray as a BJP nominee. Although the Congress put up his brother Lakhan as its official candidate, D K Shivakumar — the regional strongman who swore to avenge Ramesh’s desertion — has reportedly directed party workers to ensure that the JD(S)’s Ashok Pujari, a former BJP leader, won. In the Gokak sub-plot, which has drawn its players into a vortex of ego clashes, intrigues and the use of cynical tactics, Pujari’s only “strength” is that he belongs to the dominant Lingayat caste, while the Jarikiholi clan represents the Valmiki/Nayak tribal community. Yediyurappa has entreated the Lingayat order to ensure that the community votes stay with the BJP.
Belagavi is especially problematic for the BJP. Laxman Savadi, one of Yeddyirappa’s three deputy CMs, and senior MLA Umesh Katti are sulking and have refused to work. Savadi, a member of the legislative council, was denied a ticket from Athani which he had sought. Mahesh Kumathalli, a Congress deserter, was fielded. Katti has been upset about not being made a minister.
Indeed, a committee, comprising B L Santhosh, the BJP’s general secretary (organisation), Yediyurappa, B P Arun Kumar, the Karnataka organisational secretary and general secretaries C T Ravi and Aravind Limbavali, is looking at ways of containing insubordination. For instance, when Kaviraj Urs, a dissident filed papers as an Independent from Vijayanagar after Anand Singh, a former Congress MLA, was nominated by the party, Yediyurappa mobilised the services of Health Minister B Sriramulu to work on Urs to pull out since they are from Ballari district. But Urs did not.
A bigger concern for the BJP is: What after reaching the half-way mark and ensconcing the government in relative safety? “Each elected Congress and JD(S) defector will expect a ministership that he was promised,” a source said. After taking over, Yediyurappa appointed 18 ministers, including an Independent, and can induct another 16 because there’s a cap of 34.
Pragmatism is the byword. “Karnataka is a prestigious state, which the Centre wouldn’t wish to forfeit. Our voters, too, know is they don’t elect the BJP in the by-polls, the state will be plunged into uncertainty like Maharashtra,” a source said.
