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The US presidential election is going to swing the stakes for global climate change goals.
Under Donald Trump, the world’s largest economy has not just quit the Paris Agreement but has also openly supported carbon-driven energy use. Pulling back of the US would mean the country would not be meeting its $3-billion commitment to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), besides slowing down technological innovation in the area of green energy and sustainability.
Also, climate experts are of the view that other nations may take a cue from the US and not stick to their committed nationally determined contributions. “Countries close to the US like Canada, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia may shift their pole,” said Samrat Sengupta, programme director, climate change and energy, Centre for Science and Environment.
Even if Democrat Joe Biden takes over the Oval Office, a Senate dominated by Republicans could block funding for GCF. Governments in November 2014 pledged $10.3 billion to the GCF as part of initial resource mobilisation while replenishment pledges are coming over the past year. But Trump reneged on the commitment, and the US paid just a third of its commitment with no pledge for replenishment. The President cited GCF as the reason for exiting the Paris Agreement, which was reached under the aegis of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of Parties (COP).
Under the agreement, GCF is used for sustainable projects, and developing countries see it as a commitment from developed nations for addressing climate change issues.
The US reluctance to address climate issues is not new. It did not join the Kyoto Protocol, which came into effect in 2005, prompting Canada to quit the pact in 2011.
Senator Bernie Sanders in his ‘Green New Deal’ has talked about investing $200 billion in GCF for the equitable transfer of renewable technologies, climate adaptation, and assistance in adopting sustainable energies to help countries of the Global South with climate adaptation efforts.
“The US leadership can ensure that the developing world secures reliable electricity, reduces poverty and pollution-related fatalities, creates greater net employment, and improves living standards — all while reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” says the Green New Deal. With this sustainability plan, he has promised 20 million jobs in his country. Green energy stocks, like Enphase Energy and First Solar, fell on NASDAQ on Wednesday when early counting showed Trump was ahead but recovered on Thursday as Biden started racing ahead.
Sengupta said UNFCCC was currently the key negotiating platform of the United Nations and the exit of the US from the Paris Agreement weakened the UN. “Biden’s win may be positive but not much shift would be possible without the support of the Senate.”
A climate-friendly regime could, however, bring in push for innovations, especially in sustainable energy, from which India could benefit. At the same time, India and China could fill in the gap in climate leadership, though Sengupta pointed out the differences it could create. “The problem in the Indian market is that we are not innovation-driven and we Indianise low-end technology. China, on the other hand, is more production-driven. With this background, a climate-friendly Biden will be a better choice,” he said.
Independent of the US presidency, however, states and companies have committed to climate goals and investment in sustainable technologies. For instance, General Electric in September announced moving out of coal-based power generation.
There is also America’s Pledge, which California Governor Jerry Brown and former New York mayor and businessman Michael Bloomberg framed to continue working on emission reduction.
