The Paris Agreement on climate change is being, rightly, hailed as a stepping-stone for collective action

Arunabha Ghosh & Vaibhav Chaturvedi: For a few degrees more

Business Standard

Refocusing attention on 10 principles could mean an agreement that is good for the planet, equitable for developing countries, and promotes India's interests

Arunabha Ghosh: 10 principles for climate negotiations

Technology is widely recognised as one of the most powerful tools for combating climate change. Technology transfer (and associated financing) has been a key demand during two decades of climate negotiations, including for the upcoming negotiations in Paris. But there is still limited understanding of what works and what does not.Several climate/energy technology partnerships have been initiated across the world, many emerging within the past decade. Some serve as discussion forums, some focus on policy, some have regional or city-level mandates, and some target specific technologies. My colleagues and I reviewed more than 30 initiatives and found that very few had been designed to extend beyond sharing knowledge and some preliminary R&D activities. Even fewer had enlarged functional focus on actual transfer of equipment, joint production, or extensive deployment mandates.Mostly, we have been hanging our hopes on talk shops.Three obstacles have impeded partnerships: lack of appropr

Arunabha Ghosh: Effective climate tech partnerships

One year ago, Prime Minister Modi made the call to "Make in India" - to provide much-needed boost for the manufacturing sector. The government has, since, tried to address governance challenges through speedier clearances, or e-governance for greater transparency. Investment proposals worth Rs 1,10,000 crore (for electronics) or 56 defence manufacturing permits are counted among the achievements. In other sectors (automobiles, railways and power), foreign firms have committed to increase localisation. Challenges remain, of course, associated with land acquisition, GST, or skills. But two related issues often miss attention: resource efficiency and innovation.As countries develop and per capita incomes grow, the contribution of manufacturing increases. Researchers at CEEW analysed manufacturing trends in more than 100 economies. If India followed a similar trajectory, for its current per capita income ($3,350 in 2005 PPP$), its manufacturing share ought to have been 19 per cent of gross

Vaibhav Gupta & Arunabha Ghosh: Be resource efficient to make in India

Earlier this year, Maharashtra announced plans to replace half a million electric pumps with solar-powered agriculture pumps over the next five years. Deployment will begin this December. Other states, including Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Telangana, have ongoing programmes or have planned similar steps. The central government wants to give capital subsidies for 100,000 solar pumps in five years. As India takes steps towards the solarisation of agriculture, three important questions need to be answered. What is the potential of solar-based irrigation? Are there cost-effective ways to increase deployment? And, what potential downsides need to be mitigated?Indian agriculture is both under-irrigated (net irrigated area is only 45 per cent) and over-irrigated (more than 60 per cent of irrigation is now from groundwater). A severe groundwater crisis is looming in several states even as millions of farmers remain vulnerable to the vagaries of the monsoon. The rec

Arunabha Ghosh & Shalu Agrawal: Sustainable solar irrigation

When we think about the risks to a business's viability, or the threats to a nation's security, we normally ask, "What is the worst that could happen?" Having identified the greatest risks, we can then decide how much effort to spend on reducing or avoiding them. Climate change, surely, should be no different. How else should a head of government decide how much effort to spend on reducing or moderating emissions of greenhouse gases, other than by considering the worst case consequences of failing to do so?Over the last year, we have worked with scientists and experts in risk from China, India, the UK, and the US, among other countries, to try and understand those worst-case consequences a bit more clearly. More than 40 other scientists, economists, food and agriculture specialists, hydrologists, military strategists, public health, finance and insurance experts, among others, have contributed to our assessments.To give one example: we all know that as the world becomes warmer, heat wa

Arunabha Ghosh & David King: Climate risks - the worst cases matter

On May 20, the world's most valuable listed clean energy company's stock collapsed 47 per cent. Trading in Hong Kong-listed Hanergy Thin Film Power (HTF)'s stocks were suspended after the share prices dropped in less than one hour. The fall was as steep as HTF's rise was meteoric. Even last October, the HTF stock was valued at HK$1.50, but then rose rapidly to a high of HK$9.07. On the day of the crash, shares opened at HK$7.32 and settled at HK$3.91, wiping out nearly $19 billion in value. The news was barely picked up in India, strangely for a country with vast ambitions for renewable energy. What should we make of these developments?HTF is a subsidiary of the Beijing-headquartered and unlisted Hanergy Group. Its promoter, Li Hejun, owns nearly 75 per cent of the HTF shares and, thanks to the rise of the stock value, became one of China's richest men. Earlier this year, Financial Times identified two reasons to worry about HTF. First, since Mr Li owned a large share, small volumes of

Arunabha Ghosh: China's solar flares burn some

What lessons can India learn from the US Quadrennial Energy Review?

Arunabha Ghosh: Shifts and risks in energy

In 1911, Winston Churchill, then first lord of the Admiralty, made the decision to change the Royal Navy's primary fuel from coal (which was mined locally in Wales) to oil imported from Persia. Thus began the period of great powers seeking energy sources from overseas and, by extension, energy security.A century later, China and India are leading the growth in new demand for oil and gas, and other energy and non-fuel mineral resources. In 2009, China became the world's largest energy consumer. In the first decade of the 2000s, the share of these two countries in global fossil fuel trade more than doubled in value terms (to 10.8 per cent) and tripled in weight terms (to 14.3 per cent).Recognising these shifts, President Xi Jinping has called for China to "revolutionise energy production and consumption". He wants China to use the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st century Maritime Silk Road to expand oil and gas cooperation in Central Asia, West Asia, the Americas and Africa. Backing

Arunabha Ghosh: Build capacity for energy diplomacy

While hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November 2014, China shut industries around Beijing and pulled half the cars off the road to ensure blue skies. When one of us landed in Beijing, three days after the summit, factories were humming again but the sky was still blue. Four days later, it had turned into light grey. Newspaper columns started urging the government to take lasting measures for Chinese skies to have "permanent APEC blue".Beijing and Delhi (or China and India) are in the throes of a major air pollution problem. It is affecting health, economic growth and quality of life. Media attention has helped to highlight the problem while citizens seek remedies from masks to air purifiers. But sometimes attention is mistakenly focused on which city is worse, as if such competitive pollutionism were worthy of a prize.Air pollution is a complex outcome of emissions (from transport, industry, power and waste) and atmospheric conditions. These conditions va

Arunabha Ghosh & Hem Himanshu Dholakia: Competitive pollutionism no good

Ionce asked a rural bank officer how he managed to convince farmers to take large loans to install solar panels. He replied, "I remind them that they use two units of electricity a day (60 a month, 730 a year). This country has given you so much. Won't you install solar power, reduce your consumption from the grid and give back to the country?" This Kennedy-style pitch to market solar in India was heart-warming, even inspiring. But to reach 100 gigawatts (GW; which the government plans) by 2022, more than inspiration will be needed. In line with the prime minister's mantra, the solar sector has to match ambition with speed, scale and skill.India has a little over 3 GW of installed solar power capacity. In order to reach 100 GW, installed capacity has to double every 18 months or at a compounded annual growth rate of 62 per cent, a tall ask by any standard.The speed of execution depends on several factors. Delays in announcing policies create uncertainties. If developers do not know the

Arunabha Ghosh: Speed, scale, skill... solar?

In December 1793, Thomas Jefferson, first US Secretary of State, submitted to the US Congress a Report on the Privileges and Restrictions on the Commerce of the United States in Foreign Countries. The fledgling nation depended on exchange with the great trading powers of the day (Spain, Portugal, France, Great Britain, and the Netherlands), so the document outlined barriers against US exports ("bread stuff", tobacco, whale oil, and such). Jefferson outlined key principles of reciprocity in trade, such as gradually rising duties, movement and residence of merchants and labour, shipping and transportation. But he also argued that rather than impose countervailing measures, it was preferable to enter into "friendly arrangements" with trading partners with "liberality and spirit of accommodation". When President Obama lands in New Delhi later this week, this spirit of accommodation must reignite a strategic economic relationship between the two countries.Trade and investment have been key

Arunabha Ghosh: India-US strategic economic compass

How could India increase access to modern cooking energy for millions of under-served citizens while maintaining fiscal discipline? There has been considerable growth in domestic consumption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Connections have increased by nearly 45 million between 2010 and 2013, and now stand at 160 million. Yet, the latest Census revealed that only 28.5 per cent of households reported LPG as their primary fuel for cooking. So the demand for cleaner cooking fuel is still largely unmet, while the subsidy burden keeps rising. The government will have to find a solution, which meets both objectives.Much of the growth in LPG has been due to massive subsidies associated with its domestic consumption. Currently, every household with an LPG connection in India, irrespective of its economic or social status, is entitled to 12 subsidised cylinders (of 14.2 kg each) annually. The subsidy amounts to more than half the cost. With rising LPG consumption, the fiscal impact and import

Arunabha Ghosh & Abhishek Jain: A Rs 12,000-crore year-end gift

On November 12, China and the United States issued a joint statement: the United States would seek to reduce carbon emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2025 (against 2005); China would peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 with an "intention to try to" peak sooner. The declaration has been applauded for injecting "momentum" in global climate negotiations. It has been also criticised for not going far enough. The Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW)'s calculations find that both the United States and Chinese targets are lower than if their earlier 2020 targets were extrapolated. What should be India's response?The deal amounts to a pincer attack on India's climate negotiation strategy. From one flank, the United States and China have effectively signalled that they are in a league of their own in terms of carbon emissions, industrial structure and political weight, and would not let distinctions between countries within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN

Arunabha Ghosh: Breaking through the climate chakravyuh

When inaugurating the 99th Indian Science Congress last month, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh urged a doubling of R&D spending, with greater private sector contributions. He also called for inclusive innovation to focus on India’s food, energy and water security. Too often, however, innovation is conflated with levels of spending.

Arunabha Ghosh: Innovation needs an ecosystem

Subsidies, tariffs and public-procurement policies are trade barriers in large-scale use of renewable sources

Want clean energy? Avoid trade disputes

In 2010, India launched the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, one of the world’s most ambitious solar energy programmes. With 300 days of sunshine annually, the aim is to install 20,000 megawatts (Mw) of grid-connected and 2,000 Mw of off-grid solar power by 2022. Seventy per cent of India’s primary energy supply runs on fossil fuels. The Solar Mission holds the promise of tackling, in part, two problems at once: India’s rapidly growing energy demand and the global threat of climate change.

Arunabha Ghosh & Anjali Jaiswal: What's eclipsing India's solar sector?

Are environmental clearances holding up industrial and infrastructure investment in India? India's manufacturing sector has struggled to increase its contribution to gross domestic product and infrastructure investments have not kept pace with the need. This economic stagnation is often blamed on, among other factors, hurdles in securing environmental clearances. How true are these perceptions? Which aspects need attention? How could these be addressed?Clearances are sought under various regulatory provisions: environmental clearance for new activities or expansion of existing projects; forest clearance for any project involving diversion of forest land; wildlife clearance for projects falling within 10-kilometre radii of a "core zone" boundary.While many argue that projects are being delayed, there is no clear definition of "delays". In the environmental-clearance process, the grant of terms of reference (TORs) from the date of submission of the project proposal is meant to take 60 da

Arunabha Ghosh