 "Heavy Rainfall")
An accelerating climate crisis impacted India’s rainfall patterns with 55 per cent of the country’s tehsils recording an over 10 per cent increase in the southwest monsoon rainfall from 2012 to 2022, according to a study released on Wednesday. The 10 per cent increase has been compared with a climatic baseline from 1982 to 2011.
Independent think-tank 'The Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW)', which analysed 40-year rainfall data for more than 4,500 tehsils across India, also found that 11 per cent of the sub-districts saw a reduction in the southwest monsoon rainfall in the 10-year period. The tehsils that recorded deficient rain are located in the rain-fed Indo-Gangetic plains, northeast India and the upper Himalayan region. These areas are crucial for agricultural output and are home to fragile ecosystems particularly vulnerable to extreme climate events.
Nearly a quarter of the tehsils studied in traditionally drier regions like Rajasthan, Gujarat, central Maharashtra, and parts of Tamil Nadu saw a pronounced rainfall increase of over 30 per cent during the June to September period. The study titled ‘Decoding India's Changing Monsoon Patterns’ attributes the shift in rainfall patterns to the accelerating rate of climate change. It also found that the increased precipitation in these tehsils is the result of frequent short-duration, heavy rainfall events which often lead to flash floods.
The data also showed that almost 30 per cent of India’s districts witnessed a high number of deficient rainfall years, while 38 per cent saw a high number of excessive rainfall years. Of these, 23 per cent of districts including New Delhi, Bengaluru, Nilgiris, Jaipur, Kutch and Indore witnessed both a high number of deficient, as well as excessive rainfall years. There are almost 717 districts in the country from where the India Meteorological Department (IMD) collects monsoon data.
On northeast monsoon rainfall, which primarily impacts peninsular India, CEEW said that it has increased by more than 10 per cent in the past decade (2012-2022) in approximately 80 per cent of tehsils in Tamil Nadu, 44 per cent in Telangana, and 39 per cent in Andhra Pradesh. The report also said that on a monthly basis, it was found that nearly 48 per cent of tehsils in India saw an increased rainfall in October by more than 10 per cent, which could be due to the delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from the subcontinent.
The study recommended close mapping of the monsoon performance at more localised level based and localised decision-making which is crucial for building resilience against monsoon variability. The IMD recently launched a mission 'Panchayat Mausam Seva' that aims to take weather forecasts to every farmer in every village to mark the 150-years of its formation.
Meanwhile, CEEW also recommended the development of district-level climate action plans incorporating tehsil-level climate risk assessments.
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“In line with the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change’s (MoEFCC’s) 2019 directive, all the Indian States and UTs are revising their State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs) up to 2030. While the current plans focus on district-level climate risk analysis, our findings reveal the availability of tehsil-level climate information,” the report said.
It also called for investing in automatic weather stations and community-based recordings to capture rainfall variabilities at a hyper-local level.
