However, for several of them, the gap is much higher, an analysis of the latest data by the Controller General of Accounts shows. The highest gap — between the amount spent till January and the REs — is 93 per cent for the Ministry of Corporate Affairs.
However, officials said this was more of an adjustment with over ₹7,500 crore being transferred to the reserve fund of the Investors’ Education and Protection Fund (IEPF) Authority.
For the Jal Shakti ministry the difference stands at 72 per cent with ₹29,766 crore, expected to be spent in February-March.
For the Jal Jeevan Mission, for instance, ₹67,000 crore was allotted but not spent because the Department of Water Resources started a review. The REs show ₹16,944 crore has been spent on the scheme. According to the CGA data, the ministry had spent ₹11,670 crore till January.
The government’s guidelines on cash management require ministries limit their expenditures to no more than 33 per cent of their Budget estimates for the March quarter and 15 per cent for the last month of the financial year.
Among ministries that have spent the highest proportion of the REs are the railways, which achieved 98 per cent till January, and road, transport and highways, with 87 per cent.
The Ministries of Communications and Chemicals & Fertilisers are among the top-spending ministries, having utilised 93 and 92 per cent, respectively, till January.
Agriculture and farmers’ welfare needs to spend 34 per cent of the REs in the last two months and the defence ministry 21 per cent.
Several ministries (with allocations above ₹6,000 crore) have higher balances left in their reserves to spend in the last two months of this financial year.
The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting has 46 per cent to spend, while the rural development ministry is yet to spend 45 per cent of the REs.
The Ministries of Urban Development and Women & Child Development have to incur 43 per cent of the RE in January-March.
“In the aggregate, expenditure is more or less on track with the REs. Interministerial differences exist in most years. While ministries with a sizeable amount of undershooting will not meet the target, those who have overshot could go above that,” said Vivek Kumar, economist, QuantiEco Research.
Nominal gross domestic product, which is lower according to the second advance estimates, has slightly increased the fiscal deficit and made the debt ratio a bit higher, which is expected to necessitate a steeper consolidation path.
Using the nominal GDP of ₹345.47 trillion as denominator, the fiscal deficit for FY26 has been calculated to be 10 basis points higher at 4.5 per cent.
“If the government wants to adhere to the target of 4.4 per cent as fiscal deficit in FY26, there could be a minor cut in overall expenditure in March unless the requirement is met by some form of additional revenue generation, which looks somewhat unlikely now,” Kumar added.
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