Monsoon may start retreating from September 25 after an uneven run

After an uneven run, the southwest monsoon may start withdrawing from western parts of Rajasthan around September 25, which is a delay of a few days. 

Usually the withdrawal from extreme parts of west Rajasthan starts around September 17, according to the revised schedule.

“The reduced rainfall activity is likely to continue over northwest and adjoining west-central India during the next five days. Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from parts of West Rajasthan from around (September 25),” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday in its latest update.

Rain between June 1 and September 22 —at 780.3 mm — has been 6 per cent less than normal.

However, this is an improvement from the more than 10 per cent cumulative deficit just a few weeks ago.

The deficit narrowed due to a good pickup in rain in September over the core zones of Central and West India.

With more rain expected in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Bihar, Jharkhand, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal, the deficit may narrow more.

The rainy season followed an uneven pattern this year. 

It arrived late and then didn’t pick up in a big way, leading to almost a 9 per cent shortfall in June. Then when it gathered pace, it poured and precipitation in July was a surplus of 13 per cent. 

But in August, it again became lean, leading to a 36 per cent deficiency in the month, which is among the highest in recent years.

And, just when the country was preparing for drought-like conditions, the monsoon revived in September. This pushed up the sowing of kharif crops and eased concern about water stress for the crops planted. 

It is believed to have helped the standing sugarcane and pulses crops in Maharashtra and Karnataka and the oilseeds crop in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. In eastern India it helped paddy. Till September 22, kharif crops were sown in around 110.29 million hectares, which is 0.34 per cent more than the area covered during the same period last year and 0.70 per cent more than the normal acreage (which is the average acreage of the last five years).

Rice acreage, which was lagging till the end of July, picked up strongly from August after the rains revived over eastern parts of the country. 

Till September 22, around 41.15 million hectares has been covered under paddy, and that is 2.70 per cent more than the same period last year and 3.03 per cent more than normal acreage under kharif paddy.

The rise in paddy acreage and the improvement in the rains in September should ease some concern about the condition of the crop.

An assessment by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) says rice production this kharif season may fall by at least two million tonnes, but official sources said it would be more than 110 million tonnes.

The pulses crop has also looked up due to the late resurgence in the monsoon and the prices of all major pulses have stabilised a bit.

A report by Barclays India said that as on September 21, storage in key reservoirs stood at 71 per cent as against 66 per cent the previous week. Water levels had dipped following a mostly dry August.