India caught between Donald Trump's betrayal and China's diplomatic charm

India faces a diplomatic rethink as Trump imposes tariffs and China reaches out, but history reminds New Delhi not to trust either blindly

India stands at a diplomatic crossroads—again—as it often has in the past. Friends turned foes, old foes extending a hand of friendship. Or perhaps, at best, an opportunistic partnership.

 

Donald Trump, who reached the highest office in the US two years after Narendra Modi did the same in India, now seems to have turned his back on his ‘good friend’.

 

One could even call it Modi’s ‘Et tu, Brute?’ moment, given how often the two leaders have stressed their personal friendship—one that gave hope that India-US ties were now a real thing, not just a transactional or symbolic one.

 

 

The imposition of 50 per cent tariffs on India has stunned New Delhi policymakers, who had been hopeful—perhaps overly so—of an interim trade deal before the first round of 25 per cent tariffs kicked in. Instead, they were hit with an additional 25 per cent by Trump as a penalty for buying Russian crude. The move has been a stunning kick in the teeth, diplomatically speaking. 

 

To make matters worse, Trump’s key trade adviser Peter Navarro has gone on the warpath with India, even calling the Ukraine conflict “India’s war”—amplifying his boss’ allegation that India is fuelling the war through its Russian oil purchases.

Washington’s selective morality and strategic hypocrisy

The hypocrisy of Trump’s move isn’t lost on anyone—except, perhaps, his own administration. It has awarded China a pause, clearly because the Asian manufacturing powerhouse holds many more cards than India, particularly in rare earth magnets—and despite being a larger buyer of the same Russian crude oil.

 

Trump has also overlooked the fact that the US had encouraged India to buy discounted Russian oil in a bid to stabilise global crude prices. After all, no US President wants a repeat of the oil shock of the 1970s.

 

Now, Russia, China, and India have all extended support to each other in an apparent show of solidarity against Uncle Sam. 

US has rarely been a reliable partner: A lesson from 1971

India must keep in mind both diplomatic and political lessons from history. After all, the US has been, at best, a fair-weather friend to almost all of its allies—except, perhaps, Pakistan, by whose side it has stood firmly even in the face of demonstrable perfidy.

 

In 1971, then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had reached out to US President Richard Nixon and his confidante, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, to ask for help in quelling the persecution in then East Pakistan, which was triggering a refugee influx into India. The duo’s refusal—peppered with some salty language about Indira and her country—drove India firmly into the bear hug of the USSR, a relationship that has stood the test of time.

 

Indeed, the USSR’s placement of a nuclear submarine in the Bay of Bengal prevented any adventurism from the US’ Seventh Fleet—sent to support Pakistan during the Bangladesh war.

 

India’s diplomatic posture since then has remained firmly suspicious of the US, if not overtly antagonistic, given that history and Washington’s continued support of Pakistan despite its backing for separatist movements in India and terror groups in Afghanistan.

China signals support—but history urges caution

Over the past week, things have moved rapidly, with China and India making diplomatic overtures to each other.

 

In what is surely the equivalent of a diplomatic earthquake, China went so far as to roundly criticise the US’ imposition of 50 per cent tariffs on India.

 

Next week, leaders of India, Russia, and China are scheduled to meet at the SCO summit in Shanghai, giving rise to the possibility of a triumvirate that will stand against the US. The three nations are already part of the BRICS bloc, with Brazil—also facing tariffs—already vocal about not toeing Trump’s line.

 

Clearly, Xi Jinping will have an outsize role to play in any new alignment. China has emerged the biggest winner in Trump’s tariff war—virtually untouched so far—and is showing that it alone has the economic might the US must respect.

 

Earlier this month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited New Delhi and met with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. The MEA noted that “Both sides agreed to jointly maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas through friendly consultations,” among other initiatives such as restarting commercial flights.

India must not forget the betrayal of 1962 or Ladakh

But it is important, again, to keep history in mind. India must pause before jumping into bed with the Dragon.

 

Throwback to 1962: Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s famed ‘Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai’ rhetoric was violently thrown aside by Chinese border aggression, leaving him a broken man. The war remains independent India’s worst military defeat and left diplomatic relations strained for decades.

 

In that time, China has only grown closer to Pakistan, which it uses as a strategic counterweight to keep India on edge.

 

More recently, the 2014 Ladakh border clashes erupted even as Xi Jinping was being feted by a newly elected Modi in his home state of Gujarat, followed by the Doklam (2017) and Galwan (2020) incidents—leading to a near-freezing of ties.

 

Just this year, during Operation Sindoor, Pakistan relied on an array of Chinese jets and air defence systems in its limited conflict with India. Clearly, China has been arming Pakistan with some of its best military equipment for such an eventuality.

Neither the US nor China can offer stable partnerships

All of this makes one wonder: can India-US or India-China ties ever truly take off in a meaningful, sustainable way?

 

Trump’s recent moves have nearly undone all the diplomatic goodwill built since Bill Clinton decided the US should engage with India as a friend, not an adversary. There is a rising tide of anti-Indian sentiment among Trump’s MAGA base, bolstered by his aides’ disparaging remarks about the H1-B visa.

 

Similarly, can India look past its fraught history with China to ever become true strategic partners, especially given Beijing’s insecurities about having a second economic powerhouse in the region?

Old wine in new bottles: India’s diplomatic déjà vu

These new diplomatic entanglements with the US and China might appear surprising, but viewed through a historical lens, they are merely old wine in a new bottle—leading to the same conclusion: little has changed that should make India trust either.

 

In fact, barring Russia, India has never truly had a reliable ally since Independence. It would be naïve to assume that the US will suddenly have a change of heart, or that China will prove to be a lasting friend.

The Pakistan factor remains the biggest spoiler

And then there is the question of Pakistan. As long as our western neighbour remains a focal point of both the US’ and China’s geopolitical calculations, India will always play second fiddle.

 

It is not a far stretch to say that until India can contain Pakistan—diplomatically, economically, or militarily—it will continue to be a spoilsport in any effort to normalise relations with either the US or China. 

 

Its position as a political busybody and an economic nobody means that Pakistan will not stop currying favour with both powers. We have seen this in the past when, despite covertly supporting terror groups and sheltering Osama bin Laden, it positioned itself as America’s frontline ally in the so-called ‘war on terror’.

 

Similarly, it has willingly assumed the role of China’s vassal state—one that can keep India distracted via proxy conflict.

India’s path forward must be pragmatic, not personal

In fact, one might even argue that as long as Pakistan remains on the geopolitical board, it will be tough for India to establish any meaningful relationship with either the US or China.

 

Keeping that in mind, India must work towards mature, strategic partnerships grounded in real economic interests—not personal chemistry or reactionary diplomacy—lest it be caught wrong-footed again.