Heat could kill 46 people per hour in South Asia by 2045, study finds

A study in the journal Tropical Medicine and Health projects that climate change could double South Asia's annual heat-related deaths to nearly 400,000 by 2045, with India and Pakistan most at risk

Extreme heat is already claiming over 200,000 lives in South Asia each year. A new study warns that the death toll could reach 400,000 by 2045 as climate change accelerates.

 

In South Asia, extreme temperatures are now linked to over 200,000 deaths a year, and this number could almost double in the next two decades. This alarming trend comes from a new study in the journal Tropical Medicine and Health, titled Disease burden attributable to high temperature between 1990 and 2021 in South Asia and Southeast Asia, with projections to 2045. The findings show how deadly heat has become, and how much worse it could get.

 

Why are South Asia and Southeast Asia hit the hardest?

According to the study, these regions account for more than half of the world’s heat-related deaths. In 2021, South Asia recorded 209,537 deaths, while Southeast Asia saw 32,230 deaths due to extreme temperatures. Factors such as population density, widespread poverty, lack of cooling infrastructure, and already high baseline temperatures make this region especially vulnerable.

 

Among South Asian countries, Pakistan had the highest heat-related death rate, while India reported the highest total number of deaths due to its large population. In Southeast Asia, Myanmar recorded the highest rate, while Mauritius saw the lowest. Bhutan reported the lowest death rate within South Asia.  ALSO READ | One person dies from extreme heat every minute worldwide: Lancet report

Who is most at risk from extreme heat?

The study highlights two age groups particularly at risk:

 

Children under five years: Their weaker immune systems and higher vulnerability to infections and malnutrition make them more susceptible.

Adults over 55 years: Especially those with cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.

 

Males generally faced higher heat-related disease burdens than females, likely due to greater exposure to outdoor labour.

What diseases are linked to rising temperatures?

Along with heatstroke, the study found that non-communicable diseases (NCDs), especially cardiovascular disorders, are the leading causes of death tied to high temperatures. Among children under five, the rise in deaths is attributed to infections and nutritional deficiencies aggravated by heat stress.

Is the problem getting worse?

The study found that while age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) may decline over time due to better healthcare and awareness, the absolute number of deaths will still rise, largely because of ageing populations and rapid urbanisation.

 

By 2045, South Asia alone could see over 4,00,000 heat-related deaths annually.

What can be done to adapt to rising heat risks?

The researchers call for urgent, targeted measures including:

• Climate-resilient healthcare systems
• Improved maternal and child health services
• Urban planning that increases green cover and cooling zones
• Heat safety regulations for outdoor and informal workers

The study warned that while some countries such as Thailand, Nepal, and India may see a decline in heat-related mortality rates due to adaptation, others, including Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, could see rising deaths unless swift, coordinated action is taken. 

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