Rain-fed areas likely to receive 'above-normal' monsoon, says IMD

Says monsoon may hit Kerala in 5 days, heatwave in the North to abate by month-end

Rain this year will be “above normal”, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday reiterated, adding that precipitation in rainfed areas might be in sync with its prediction for the country as a whole.

A good southwest monsoon in the critical rainfed regions of the country -- spanning Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal -- augurs well for the country’s output of pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals. 

Good pulses and oilseeds production, along with cereals, will help in boosting their domestic supplies and help in keeping inflation rates low in the coming months.

Releasing its second stage forecast, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said almost all parts of the country would get “normal” to “above normal” rain except perhaps some areas of Northeast India, Odisha, south Gangetic West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir.

 

Northeast India might get “below normal” rain at less than 94 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), the Met said.

On the scale of probability, the Met said there was a 31 per cent probability of the monsoon this year being “normal”, 32 per cent of it being “above normal”, and 29 per cent “excess”.

There is just 2 per cent probability of it being deficient and 8 per cent of it being “below normal”.

Mohapatra said the monsoon was on course to reach the mainland in the next five days. The IMD had predicted it would reach the Kerala coast by May 31. The forecast is with a model error of four days.

He said Cyclone Remal, which lashed parts of West Bengal and Bangladesh earlier this week, had not had any impact on the progress of the monsoon.

Mohapatra said as predicted in the first-stage forecast in April, La Nina is expected to develop during the latter half of the 2024 monsoon season while Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was expected to be positive.

Both are good for the monsoon.

For June, which is the first month of the four-month monsoon season, the IMD predicted normal rain for the country with rainfall in the range 92-108 per cent of the LPA.

The LPA for June is 166.9 mm.

“Normal rainfall in June is expected over southern and central India while parts of northwest India might get deficient rain,” the IMD said.

On the current heatwave prevailing across much of North, West and Central India, the IMD said it might be over by the month-end due to the formation of western disturbances but in June there could be more than “normal” heat waves.

Nights will be warmer, he said.