Auto sales set for strong September; analysts bet on Maruti, M&M, TVS Motor

September auto sales expectations: Analysts cite the start of festive sales from September 22, improved finance availability, dealer inventory build-up, and positive rural sentiment as key drivers.

September auto sales expectations: Domestic brokerage Nuvama Institutional Equities (Nuvama) analysts expect wholesale auto sales in September 2025 to clock healthy year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth across segments, led by two-wheelers (2Ws) and tractors, with festive demand, GST cuts and rural tailwinds boosting momentum.

 

Analysts cite the start of festive sales from September 22, improved finance availability, dealer inventory build-up, and positive rural sentiment as key drivers. GST rate cuts and expectations from the upcoming Pay Commission are also seen supporting customer sentiment.

 

“We reckon two-wheelers and tractors will lead momentum in September, while passenger vehicles and CVs too should see steady growth on the back of GST cuts, new products and festive demand. Our top OEM picks are Maruti Suzuki, TVS Motor, Mahindra & Mahindra and Hero MotoCorp,” Raghunandhan NL, Manav Shah and Rahul Kumar of Nuvama said in a note.  ALSO READ | Maruti, M&M, Bajaj Auto: Limited upside in auto stcks, says Choice Equities

 

Here’s the segment-wise expectations ahead of September auto sales data:

Two-wheelers

 

The brokerage projects domestic 2W volumes to grow around 8 per cent Y-o-Y, driven by GST cuts, entry-level recovery and healthy dealer inventory. Export volumes are expected to expand at a double-digit pace, aided by strong demand in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

 

Eicher Motors-Royal Enfield (EIM-RE) is expected to lead with 54 per cent growth in volumes to 134,000 units. TVS Motor may clock 10 per cent growth to 530,000 units, while Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp are expected to post 6 per cent and 5 per cent growth to 500,000 units and 670,000 units, respectively.

Tractors

 

Domestic tractor volumes are forecast to rise about 10 per cent Y-o-Y, led by GST cuts and positive farmer sentiment on the back of surplus rainfall expectations. However, excess rains in a few states and higher input costs are near-term risks.

 

Mahindra & Mahindra’s farm division is projected to report an 11 per cent rise in volumes to 49,300 units, while Escorts, including Kubota, is seen growing 10 per cent Y-o-Y to 13,600 units.

Passenger vehicles (PVs)

 

PV volumes are expected to grow about 7 per cent Y-o-Y in September, supported by GST cuts, improved entry-level demand and festive inventory build-up at dealerships.

 

Tata Motors-PV is forecast to post 13 per cent growth to 46,800 units, while M&M-Auto (including PVs, CVs and three-wheelers) may grow 10 per cent to 97,000 units. Maruti Suzuki is projected to rise 8 per cent to 200,000 units, while Hyundai is seen growing 3 per cent to 66,000 units.

Commercial vehicles (CVs)

 

Domestic CV sales are likely to expand around 6 per cent Y-o-Y, aided by a favourable base 

and pickup in infrastructure execution. Exports are also expected to grow at a double-digit pace, led by Asia markets.

 

Tata Motors-CV is expected to rise 8 per cent to 32,300 units, while Eicher’s VECV is likely to grow 8 per cent to 8,200 units. Ashok Leyland is seen posting 7 per cent growth to 18,500 units.

 

“We remain constructive on the auto sector, taking cognisance of GST benefits, new launches and supportive policy measures. We expect 2Ws, tractors and SUVs to outpace the broader industry in the coming quarters,” analysts said.