India's mcap rises $1 trn since March; leads gains in top 10 equity markets

The Sensex and Nifty gain over 12 per cent each amid strong global performance; analysts caution on high valuations; earnings estimates revised lower for FY26 and FY27

India’s listed companies have added nearly $1 trillion in market capitalisation since early March 2025, taking the total to $5.33 trillion. This sharp increase comes on the back of a strong rally that followed a five-month correction between October 2024 and February 2025, Moneycontrol reported. 

In percentage terms, India’s market capitalisation (mcap) surged by over 21 per cent — the highest growth among the world’s top 10 equity markets. India now ranks as the fifth-largest equity market globally, trailing only the US, China, Japan, and Hong Kong.

Germany recorded the second-largest gain during this period, with its mcap rising nearly 14 per cent. Canada followed with an 11 per cent jump, while Hong Kong’s mcap increased by more than 9 per cent. Japan and the UK also saw gains of around 8 per cent each. 

 

By contrast, the US, the world’s biggest equity market, reported a modest increase of around 2.4 per cent. China, the second-largest, recorded a 2.7 per cent rise. France and Taiwan reported gains of over 3.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively.

 

Sensex and Nifty ride the rally

India’s benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty, rose by 12.5 per cent and 13.5 per cent, respectively, during this period. Broader market indices performed even better: the BSE MidCap index climbed over 20.7 per cent, and the SmallCap index jumped by 26 per cent.  TRACK STOCK MARKET UPDATES LIVE 

However, the rally has also led to stretched valuations, raising concerns among analysts. Many have started lowering their earnings forecasts, the report said.

 

Earnings estimates reflect caution

According to a recent note from JM Financial, the Nifty 50’s earnings per share (EPS) estimate for FY25 saw a minor upward revision of 0.3 per cent in April 2025. However, estimates for FY26 and FY27 were downgraded by 1.1 per cent and 1.0 per cent, respectively. The slight upgrade for FY25 EPS is due to muted analyst expectations for Nifty’s fourth-quarter FY25 profit after tax (PAT) heading into the results season, the news report said. 

The trend of downgrades continues, with the April 2025 cuts for FY26 and FY27 being sharper than those recorded in earlier months — 0.9/0.6 per cent in February and 0.2/0.6 per cent in March. This points to a cautious outlook on forward earnings. According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, the Nifty 50 companies are projected to grow earnings by 14 per cent year-on-year in FY26.