ITC trades below this monthly avg after 4 years, VBL first-time; what next?

ITC, Varun Beverages share outlook: FMCG major ITC can slip another 10.5%, while Pepsi distributor VBL could slide another 27% suggests technical charts.

The Nifty FMCG index has underperformed the equity benchmark indices in the calendar year 2025 thus far. While, the benchmark indices - the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty were down around 3 per cent on a year-till-date basis, the Nifty FMCG index has shed 8.6 per cent in the same period.  One of the key reasons for the substantial fall in the Nifty FMCG index has been ITC, which has declined over 9 per cent so far in 2025, and was trading at a 8-month low. Whereas, among other FMCG shares - Varun Beverages, Radico Khaitan and United Spirits were the major losers - down 16 per cent - 25 per cent.  Amid the market fall, ITC and Varun Beverages (VBL) need to be closely tracked at current levels as these stocks are seen testing the short-term monthly support on the charts. ITC is seen testing its 20-MMA (Monthly Moving Average) for the first-time since December 2020, while VBL is seen testing its 20-MMA for the first-ever time since its debut in December 2016.  Against this background, should you buy or sell ITC and VBL at present levels? Here's what the technical charts suggest for these two FMCG stocks.  ITC  Current Price: Rs 402  Downside Risk: 10.5%  Support: Rs 398; Rs 396  Resistance: Rs 413; Rs 420; Rs 430  ITC stock is seen trading below its 20-MMA, which stands at Rs 404; at the same time the stock is seen testing support at its 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at Rs 398. Thus the Rs 398 - Rs 404 zone holds the key for ITC stock in the near-term. A monthly close below Rs 404 shall weaken the long-term chart set-up; and indicate a likely fall towards the trend line support at Rs 360 levels - this implies a downside risk of 10.5 per cent from present levels. Interim support for the stock is seen at Rs 382. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  In the near-term ITC is trading in a fairly oversold zone. As long as the recent low is respected the stock can attempt a minor pullback, wherein it may face resistance around Rs 413 and Rs 420 levels. The overall bias is likely to remain negative as long as the stock trades below Rs 430.    Varun Beverages (VBL)  Current Price: Rs 468  Downside Risk: 27.4%  Support: Rs 445; Rs 385  Resistance: Rs 495; Rs 525  Varun Beverages stock has been trading below its 20-MMA for the major part of February, and seems likely to close below the same. The 20-MMA stands at Rs 525 - i.e. almost 12.2 per cent higher from the present levels. That apart, the stock is also seen trading below its 100-WMA, which stands at Rs 495. Thus, it seems like the overall bias for VBL stock is likely to remain negative as long as the stock trades below this Rs 495 - Rs 525 resistance zone. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  On the downside, the stock seems on course to test its trend line support on the monthly chart at Rs 385; below which a slide to Rs 340 cannot be ruled out - this implies a downside risk of 27.4 per cent. Interim support for the stock can be expected around Rs 445.