JP Morgan raises long-term gold price forecast 15% to $4,500 an ounce

JP Morgan raised its long-term forecast for gold prices on Wednesday by 15 per cent to $4,500 an ounce, while ​keeping its 2026 year-end forecast at $6,300.

In a note ​to clients, the bank cited increased central bank buying, public ‌announcements of U.S. Treasury divestment and countries shifting revenue bases away from the dollar and into Chinese renminbi.

In view of these factors, the bank said it upped its weighting for the "reserve currency paradigm shift" and "significant investor diversification", leading to its long-term forecast of $4,500 an ounce.

Macquarie Group earlier this month lifted its average first-quarter 2026 gold forecast to $4,590 an ounce, up from $4,300 previously and hiked its second-quarter estimate to $4,300 from $4,200. It also raised ‌its average 2026 gold price forecast to $4,323 per ounce, compared with an earlier estimate of $4,225.

 

Spot gold has risen about 20 per cent this year, hitting a three-week high of $5,248.89 an ounce on Tuesday that was off its January 29 all time high of $5,594.82.

That followed a 2025 surge of more than 64 per cent in the traditional safe-haven metal.