Steel prices may stabilise in Q4FY26 as demand rises despite imports

Global oversupply and Chinese exports continue to weigh on prices, but strong domestic demand and expected duty support could help stabilise Indian steel prices by the final quarter of FY26

Conflicting trends in the steel industry make it hard for investors to take definitive calls. The world’s largest steel producer, China, is also the world’s largest exporter. Due to its weak macroeconomy and in particular, the weak real estate sector, China has large surplus steel production, and it has flooded markets with cheap exports.

 

In India, domestic steel demand is growing steadily. But prices are low due to the overhang of imports, despite measures to protect domestic industry such as import duties, including safeguard duties (which have ended but may be reimposed) and anti-dumping duties, and also non-tariff barriers like