Immigration crackdown linked to 88% fall in US job growth vs 2024: Report

US job growth 2025 vs 2024: A San Francisco Fed report finds slower unauthorised immigration is coinciding with weaker construction and manufacturing job growth in the US

A sharp fall in unauthorised immigration to the United States has coincided with weaker job growth, particularly in construction and manufacturing, according to new research published on Tuesday by the San Francisco Federal Reserve, as overall job additions in 2025 fell nearly 88% from the previous year.

 

The study examined the surge in unauthorised immigrants from 2021 and the slowdown that began in March 2024. It found that local employment growth rose alongside those inflows, and then declined as they fell.

 

The findings come as President Donald Trump, now in his second term, presses ahead with a tougher approach to immigration.Us job growth 2025 statistics here 

   

Immigration slowdown tracks construction and factory jobs

 

“Unauthorised” immigrants refers to people who entered the United States without formal admission under immigration law. Federal agents encounter most either at ports of entry, along the border or within the country.

 

Many are issued a “Notice To Appear” in immigration court, allowing them to seek asylum or challenge removal. Historically, most have been permitted to remain in the United States while their cases proceed. Court cases can take at least a year and often several years to resolve.

 

The Federal Reserve economists tracked what they describe as unauthorised immigrant worker flows and compared them with employment patterns across local labour markets.

 

“On average, places experiencing the biggest slowdowns in unauthorised immigration saw the biggest slowdowns in employment growth in construction, manufacturing, and other services,” wrote Fed economists Daniel Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou.

 

They added that the impact was particularly visible in housing-related work. “The effect for the construction sector is particularly notable, because it suggests that falling UIWF (unauthorised immigrant worker flows) in recent months could be slowing residential construction and hence slowing down the growth of housing supply,” they wrote. 

 

US job growth slows sharply in 2025

 

Revised jobs figures published last week showed the US economy added 181,000 jobs in 2025. That compares with 1.459 million jobs added in 2024, the final full year of former President Joe Biden’s term.

 

Economists have linked part of the slowdown to a drop in immigration. The San Francisco Fed study sets out a closer look at how changes in unauthorised worker inflows have tracked with local employment growth.

 

“US employment growth is likely to face continued downward pressure as long as the ongoing declines in unauthorised immigrant worker flows continue,” the authors wrote. 

 

Trump’s immigration crackdown and the labour market

 

The Trump administration says lower immigration will benefit American workers and help ease housing pressures by reducing demand.

 

Since returning to office, Mr Trump has tightened enforcement through executive actions and administrative directives. His administration has expanded the scope of expedited removals, increased workplace raids, tightened asylum eligibility standards, strengthened cooperation between federal and local law enforcement agencies, and moved to expand detention capacity while accelerating deportation proceedings.

 

Officials argue stricter enforcement is needed to restore control at the border. Critics say the measures risk pulling in long-settled migrants, students and workers, leaving them in prolonged legal uncertainty.