Nifty up 200 pts on GST boost; time to sell the rally? What charts suggest

Technical chart indicates that the short-term bias for the Nifty is likely to remain tepid as long as the index quotes below 25,065 levels.

The NSE Nifty 50 index surged to an intra-day high of 24,980 on Thursday as equity markets cheered GST 2.0 reforms. At 10:00 AM, the Nifty was up nearly 200 points or 0.8 per cent at 24,900 levels. Meanwhile, its counterpart, the BSE Sensex rallied 650 points to 81,200 levels.  The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council, headed by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, on September 4 approved a simplified two-tier rate structure of 5 per cent and 18 per cent; thus bringing goods taxed at 28 per cent to a lower slab of 18 per cent or so. READ MORE  Meanwhile, on the bourses, with today's sharp rally the Nifty has bounced back above its 100-Day Moving Average, which stands at 24,775. Technical chart shows that the Nifty at present is seen testing resistance at the 50-DMA, which stands at 24,975.  Despite today's gain, the overall short-term bias for the Nifty is likely to remain subdued as long as the index remains below 25,065, suggests the daily Nifty chart.  Here's a detailed technical outlook on Sensex, Nifty and the Midcap, Smallcap indices. 

Trading strategy in Sensex, Nifty post GST reforms

Nifty

Current Level: 24,900  Likely Target: 25,900 / 23,660  Upside Potential: 4%  Downside Risk: 5%  Support: 24,700; 24,400; 24,087  Resistance: 25,065; 25,250; 25,600  At present levels, the Nifty is barely 160-odd points from its key short-term hurdle, which stands at 25,065. Among the key momentum oscillators, the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) has shown a positive crossover, supported by a favourably placed Relative Strength Index (RSI). 

 

 

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  The Slow Stochastic, however, indicates a tepid bias, with the Average Directional Index (ADX) at crossover point - implying inconclusive behaviour - meaning that going ahead either bulls or bears could take control or the markets could remain choppy in the near-term.  In the scenario, wherein the Nifty manages to conquer the 25,065 hurdle, it shall open the doors for a likely rally towards 25,600 levels, above which a spurt to 25,900 seems likely. Interim resistance for the index can be anticipated around 25,250 levels.  On the flip side, given the current negative bias, the Nifty could witness another round of sell-off, and could possibly slide to 23,660 levels. Interim support for the Nifty is seen at the 20-DMA, which stands around 24,700 levels, the recent low around 24,400 and the 200-DMA at 24,087 levels. 

Sensex

Current Level: 81,200  Likely Target: 84,240 / 78,770  Upside Potential: 3.7%  Downside Risk: 3%  Support: 81,055; 80,760; 80,400  Resistance: 81,900; 82,300; 83,250; 83,850  The BSE Sensex is likely to trade with a favourable bias as long as the index holds above 80,400 levels. On the upside, the index can potentially rally to 84,240 levels, with interim resistance likely around 81,900, 82,300, 83,250 and 83,850 levels. Break and sustained quote below 80,400 levels can negate the positive bias. Interim support can be expected around 81,055 and 80,760 levels. Breakdown below 80,400 can possibly trigger a slide towards 78,770 levels. 

Nifty Midcap 150

Current Level: 21,340  Likely Target: 23,250 / 19,550  Upside Potential: 9%  Downside Risk: 8.4%  Support: 21,170; 21,085; 20,450; 20,065  Resistance: 21,520; 21,650; 22,050; 22,450  The Nifty Midcap 150 index today opened at the threshold of the short-term hurdle, which stands at 21,520, and has since pared gains to quote around 21,340 levels. The daily chart shows that the Midcap index has been trading below this key hurdle since the breakdown on June 18, 2025. The Nifty Midcap index needs to close above 21,520 levels in order to signal a fresh uptrend. 

 

  In case of an upside breakout, the Midcap index can potentially spurt towards 22,450 levels; above which a rally towards 23,250 levels seems cannot be ruled out. Intermediate resistance for the index can be anticipated around 21,650 and 22,050 levels.  On the downside, the 20-DMA at 21,170 and the 100-DMA at 21,085 levels are likely to act as key near-term support levels. Break and trade below these levels, can push the Midcap index towards 20,065 and 19,550 levels; with interim support likely around the 200-DMA, which stands at 20,450 levels. 

Nifty Smallcap 250

Current Level: 17,023  Likely Target: 18,350 / 16,000  Upside Potential: 7.8%  Downside Risk: 6%  Support: 16,811; 16,476  Resistance: 17,118; 17,300; 17,450; 18,050  The Nifty Smallcap index crossed the trend line hurdle, which stands at 17,118, as it reached an intra-day high of 17,160 today. The Smallcap, however, needs to close above the same for the trend to reverse. 

 

  In case of a breakout, the Nifty Smallcap index can potentially zoom to 18,350 levels, with intermediate resistance likely around 17,300, 17,450 and 18,050 levels. On the flip side, in case the breakout fails, the Smallcap index could drop to 16,000 levels, with interim support anticipated around the 20-DMA, which stands at 16,811 and the 200-DMA at 16,476.