Nomura maintains Nifty target at 26,140; adds Prestige, Swiggy & Titan

Earnings slowdown to persist in the near term and modest recovery expected in FY27, says brokerage

Nomura has retained its March 2026 Nifty 50 index target at 26,140, implying a 4 per cent upside. The target is based on 21x FY27 estimated earnings per share of Rs 1,245. The brokerage expects a mid-single-digit earnings growth and a downside risk to consensus earnings estimates.

 

While Indian equities have underperformed global peers over the past year, they have delivered a compound annual growth rate of 12.4 per cent in the past five years. The brokerage noted that valuations have now reverted to pre-pandemic emerging market (EM) premium levels.

 

“High starting valuations and slowing earnings growth justify the relative underperformance in the past one year,” Nomura said. It expects a cyclical earnings slowdown to persist in the near term, with a modest recovery in FY27. 

 

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Domestic market support remains robust due to sustained retail inflows and a low equity risk premium. However, Nomura believes valuations are not yet attractive enough to trigger strong foreign fund inflows. While the expected consumption stimulus could offer short-term benefits, its multiplier impact may be diluted by weak household sentiment, subdued job and wage growth, and low savings, said Nomura.

 

The brokerage favours domestic consumption themes while turning constructive on pharmaceuticals.

 

Nomura has added Prestige Estates Projects, Swiggy, and Titan Company to its list of preferred stocks. Within commodities, it prefers cement over metals, leading to the inclusion of Ambuja Cements and the removal of Jindal Steel & Power from its portfolio.

 

Adjustments in the preferred list also include replacing Ather Energy with TVS Motor, Bharat Petroleum with Petronet LNG and Macrotech Developers with Aditya Birla Real Estate. The brokerage has also shifted its stance on pharmaceuticals from tactically cautious to constructive, adding Alkem Laboratories to its preferred stock list.