Focus on borders: The changing narrative on demographic challenges

The Centre's narrative on demographic challenges has evolved to flagging illegal migration in border states from citing population explosion in a community, writes Archis Mohan

The Union Ministry of Home Affairs on May 26 notified that the Centre has constituted a “high-level committee to study the demographic changes arising from illegal immigration and other abnormal reasons”. This announcement coincided with the 12th anniversary of the Narendra Modi-led council of ministers taking the oath of office for the first time in 2014. 

The committee was formed on the heels of the special intensive revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls by the Election Commission (EC), and the Census 2027, which will conclude with population enumeration in February next year. 

The security and demographic threat posed by illegal immigrants or infiltrators was central to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) election campaigns in the Assembly polls of Bihar (2025), Assam and West Bengal (2026). 

The Election Commission conducted the SIR exercise in Bihar and West Bengal, and the special summary revision (SSR) in Assam, to detect and delete the names of illegal immigrants from electoral rolls. Over 50 million names, including those of illegal migrants, across a dozen states have been struck off so far. 

Since returning to power in Assam, the BJP government has introduced a Uniform Civil Code Bill, proposing punitive measures such as seven years’ prison for bigamy or polygamy. BJP ally Asom Gana Parishad’s legislator Prithiraj Rava said the UCC Act will help in addressing the state’s changing demographic pattern. 

The BJP also promised UCC during its election campaign in West Bengal. West Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari recently announced the state would aggressively implement a “detect, delete and deport” policy against infiltrators. It will set up district-level holding centres for suspected illegal immigrants. 

State Cabinet minister Agnimitra Paul defended the detailed 12-page application form for the newly announced ‘Annapurna Yojana’, a direct cash transfer scheme for women, saying the government wants to ensure that welfare programme benefits reach only Indian citizens and not “Rohingyas and Bangladeshis who are standing in long queues near the Bangladesh border.” Adhikari said at least 3 million women were found ineligible for the cash transfer scheme. 

In BJP-ruled Arunachal Pradesh, Chief Minister Pema Khandu on Friday said the government has decided to constitute four high-powered committees to re-verify Scheduled Tribe (ST) certificates, strengthen the Inner Line Permit (ILP) network and check infiltration. The government would create a separate department dedicated to strengthening ILP enforcement and safeguarding indigenous tribal rights, he said. It would take action against all ‘illegal’ mosques in the state, he added.

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) affiliate Akhil Bharatiya Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram (ABVKA), which works among the country’s tribal communities, is preparing to urge STs to mention ‘Hindu’ under the column for religion during Census 2027. The population enumeration for STs will start in February 2027. ABVKA president Satyendra Singh has expressed concerns over demographic changes in tribal regions, particularly in Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh. This could ultimately weaken the country, he said. Tribals identifying themselves under the “other religion” category in census records becomes the “first step” towards conversion, he added. 

The BJP now rules three of the five Indian states that share borders with Bangladesh, namely, West Bengal, Tripura and Assam. NDA ally Conrad Sangma-led National People’s Party, rules Meghalaya. 

In western India, barring Punjab — where Assembly polls are due in February-March 2027 — the BJP rules Gujarat and Rajasthan, while Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir are Union territories. 

High-level panel to monitor demographic changes 

The MHA’s High-Level Committee on Demographic Changes (HLCDC) — announced within weeks of the NDA’s poll wins in Assam and West Bengal — will be headed by retired Supreme Court judge Justice Prakash Prabhakar Naolekar. It will submit its report within a year. Headquartered in New Delhi, the committee will also include the Census Commissioner, along with retired IAS officer Durga Shankar Mishra, ex-IPS officer Balaji Srivastava and Dr Shamika Ravi, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, as members.  The MHA said “extensive challenges” have arisen from demographic changes due to illegal immigration. These changes are not limited just to border areas, as their impact has extended, “affecting urban centres, industrial corridors, tribal regions, and other socially and economically sensitive areas,” the government notification stated. It added that HLCDC will recommend a permanent operational system for the “legal, fair and time-bound identification, detention, and deportation of illegal immigrants already residing in the country”. It will also recommend an institutional mechanism to strengthen border management, population stabilisation, and identification systems for sustained monitoring of such trends, besides proposing a comprehensive policy framework to enhance coordination between the Centre and state governments. 

HLCDC will also assess whether states need a law to tackle the issue of ‘illegal’ immigrants, Shah said. He is currently on a tour of border districts in Rajasthan and Gujarat. The Union home minister has proposed to expand the Border Security Force’s (BSF’s) operational mandate. BSF guards India’s borders with Bangladesh and Pakistan. Shah has also spoken of the ‘Smart Border Security’ project along these borders for which the Centre has allocated a substantial budget. He lauded the BJP government in West Bengal for allocating all the necessary land for fencing purposes. If illegal migrants leave the country of their own accord, the state will not file legal cases against them and help with their travel to the neighbouring country, Shah said. He added that 121 hectares of land in the Siliguri corridor, also called the “chicken's neck”, has been transferred to the Centre. Shah has asked officers to strictly enforce a “zero tolerance” policy against ‘illegal’ constructions within 15 km of the country’s borders and demolish all such structures. 

Change of stance 

The NDA government has gradually nuanced its position on the issue of demographic challenge. In his Independence Day speech in 2019, the PM termed “population explosion” as a cause for concern. He described those who limit the size of their family as “patriots”. Six years later, his Independence Day speech flagged the dangers of demographic imbalance due to infiltration and illegal migration in border areas, and announced the launch of a “high-powered demography mission”.

In his annual Vijayadashami address in 2022, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat cautioned about the dangers of “religion-based population imbalance”, citing the creation of new countries such as South Sudan, East Timor, and Kosovo. The RSS leadership has subsequently said it is concerned about the growing number of illegal immigrants settling in border and coastal districts.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her 2024 interim Budget speech said rising population growth and demographic changes pose challenges to the goal of Viksit Bharat. She proposed the formation of a high power panel to probe and to recommend corrective measures. 

Focus on borders 

• MHA announces High-Level Committee on Demographic Changes
• This coincides with 12 years of Modi government taking oath of office
• BJP-led NDA focusing on border security in push to check infitration, along withthe EC’s electoral roll revision
• NDA now rules 4 out of 5 states bordering Bangladesh
• Centre eyes greater role for BSF in border defence