WHO-Imperial College analysis suggests Congo Ebola outbreak undercounted

By Jason Gale

 

Ebola infections in Democratic Republic of Congo may exceed 800 cases, far surpassing reported figures, according to an analysis by researchers at Imperial College London and the World Health Organization.

 

The analysis, based on case data collected through Saturday, found the outbreak was likely substantially larger than officially detected after Uganda confirmed infections in travelers from eastern Congo’s Ituri province. 

 

“Together, this suggests that the epidemic is larger than currently ascertained; however, the true magnitude remains uncertain,” the researchers wrote.

 

The group — led by Anne Cori, a mathematical and statistical modeller at Imperial’s Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis — estimated that “approximately 400 to 800 cases” of Ebola caused by Bundibugyo virus may have occurred in Congo as of May 17. 

 

 

“However, there is considerable uncertainty around these estimates, with values of over 1,000 not being able to be excluded given current data,” they wrote.

 

More than 540 suspected cases and dozens of deaths have been reported since the outbreak began in late April, mainly in Ituri. The WHO on Sunday declared the situation a public health emergency of international concern, its highest level of alarm.