The north-east monsoon, which is confined to primarily southern states, is expected to be normal this year at 89-111 per cent of the long period average (LPA), the Met department said on Tuesday.
“The IMD operational forecast for the 2017 North-East monsoon season (October-December) rainfall over the south Peninsula (Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka) is most likely to be normal (89% -111% of LPA),” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement.
The LPA of the north-east monsoon over the south peninsula for the base period, 1951-2000, is 332.1mm.
The south peninsula, consisting of five subdivisions (Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and south interior Karnataka) receives about 30 per cent of its annual rain during the north-east monsoon (October to December). Tamil Nadu, in particular, receives about 48 per cent of its annual rain during this season.
India gets the bulk of the monsoon rain (around 70 per cent) during the south-west monsoon, which ended last week with a deficit of 5 per cent. The rain in the June-September period was 841.3 mm, while the normal was around 887.5 mm.
The rain was normal and excess in 30 of the 36 sub-divisions, while it was deficient in six of them. Till September 27, around 35 per cent of the 660 districts of the country, mostly in big agrarian states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, didn’t get adequate rain.
But, how much impact it will have on the yields remains to be seen as many of these areas are well-irrigated. The government in its first advance estimate of foodgrains production projected kharif output to be 2.77 per cent less than last year due to a drop in acreage in pulses and oilseeds, and also on account of uneven rain.
Meanwhile, on the north-east monsoon, the IMD said that currently, neutral El Nino, along with neutral Indian Ocean Dipole, could lead to a normal south-east monsoon.
“The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) forecast indicates high probability for cooling of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over equatorial central and east Pacific leading to cool ENSO neutral conditions during the 2017 NE monsoon season and then turning to weak La Nina conditions in the early part of next year,” the IMD said.
- The south peninsula, consisting of five subdivisions, receives about 30% of its annual rain during the north-east monsoon
- Tamil Nadu, in particular, receives about 48% of its annual rain during this season
- India gets the bulk of the monsoon rain (around 70%) during the south-west monsoon
- The rain in the June-September period was 841.3 mm, while the normal was around 887.5 mm