Bihar election results: What NDA's win means for future Rajya Sabha polls

With the NDA heading for a sweeping majority in Bihar, the Opposition now faces a second setback, a weaker hand in upcoming Rajya Sabha elections as multiple seats will open for renewal before 2030

Even as the counting of votes continues for the Bihar Assembly elections, the Election Commission of India’s data at 6 pm clearly indicates the writing on the wall — the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is headed for a landslide win.

 

The alliance has crossed the majority mark with a lead of 204 seats in the 243-member Assembly. According to the ECI trends, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is leading in 93 seats, the Janata Dal (United) in 83, Union minister Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) in 19, Union minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha in four, and Rajya Sabha MP Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha in four.

 

Meanwhile, the opposition Mahagathbandhan is ahead in just 32 seats, with Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD leading in 26, the Congress in five, and the CPI(ML)(L) and CPM in one seat each.

 

But it is not just the effect for Bihar alone that the Opposition will be worried about. The next problem, because of their diminished MLA count in the Assembly, will echo in the Rajya Sabha as well.

 

How Rajya Sabha members are chosen

 

Members of the Rajya Sabha are elected indirectly by the elected members of state legislative assemblies using proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote.

 

Each state has a fixed number of Rajya Sabha seats; Bihar currently elects 16 members to the Rajya Sabha. Because votes are cast by MLAs, the party or coalition with a majority in the state Assembly is better placed to win the seats that fall vacant during that state’s biennial Rajya Sabha cycle.

 

The current count of RJD members in the Rajya Sabha from Bihar is five, and two of them, Prem Chand Gupta and AD Singh, are set to retire next year in 2026. The BJP has five members, the JD(U) has four, while the Congress and RLM have one member each in the Upper House.

 

What a strong NDA majority means for Rajya Sabha arithmetic

 

A decisive NDA majority in the Bihar Assembly essentially increases the alliance’s ability to elect more Rajya Sabha members from the state when the two vacancies arise next year. The NDA can translate its Assembly numbers into Rajya Sabha victories without needing support from Opposition legislators.  Also Read | Bihar election results LIVE: "Katta Sarkar" would never return to the state, says PM Modi

 

According to the current list of Rajya Sabha members from Bihar, a number of sitting MPs have terms that end in April 2030. Meanwhile, the next Bihar Assembly elections will be scheduled at the end of the year 2030. Because Rajya Sabha elections (to fill retiring seats) will happen before the new Assembly is constituted, the party that controls the outgoing Assembly has the voters (MLAs) who elect those Rajya Sabha members.

 

Therefore, the NDA, by virtue of its today’s decisive Assembly win, will be able to elect its preferred candidates to those Rajya Sabha seats whose terms end by April 2030, while the Opposition will have much less say, since their MLA strength will be weaker. This timing gives the NDA a structural advantage that even though some Rajya Sabha MPs’ terms go on until 2030, the NDA’s current (post-2025) legislative strength will influence who replaces them.

 

Opposition’s shrinking margin for influence

 

For opposition parties such as the Congress and RJD, this dynamic will significantly weaken their ability to retain, let alone increase their Rajya Sabha. With a large tranche of seats retiring in or before 2030, the Opposition’s strategy would have to rely on cross-alliances or hope for dissent within the NDA ranks.

 

Over time, this could reduce the effective Opposition cushion in the Rajya Sabha coming from Bihar. Even if the Opposition fields high-profile candidates, their chances will be constrained by MLA arithmetic.