Taking a 'rain check' on agri output as past data softens monsoon concerns

IMD's below-normal monsoon forecast raises farm concerns, but past trends show steady foodgrain output supported by irrigation, resilient seeds, and better rainfall distribution

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday forecast a below-normal monsoon for India in 2026 at 92 per cent of the long period average (LPA), the first such forecast in more than a decade. The forecast has raised concerns over the impact of low rains on India’s agriculture output. However, historical data shows that over the year, though the southwest monsoon has dipped below normal in a few years but foodgrain production has not dropped much in comparison to the previous crop year (July to June). This indicates low cumulative rainfall does not necessarily lead to drop in farm production if timeliness, spread and distribution of the showers is even.