Brokerages expect 15% tariff hike by Indian telcos from December 2025

Last tariff hike took place in July 2024; telcos have raised tariffs thrice since December 2019

Indian telcos could undertake a 15 per cent hike in tariffs in the coming weeks to months ahead of the expected IPO of Jio Platforms, according to brokerages tracking the sector. A number of factors support the brokerages’ estimates, including the time lapsed since the last increase in headline tariffs, which took place in July 2024.

 

“Given the low inflation and no major state elections in the next couple of months, we believe the time is ripe for telcos to undertake the next tariff hike. We build in a tariff hike of ₹15% (or ₹Rs 50/cycle on a 28-day 1.5GB/day plan) in December 2025,” said analysts at Motilal Oswal in a report. The monthly plans of Rs 299 and Rs 349 for Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are likely to be changed. 

“We believe the third tariff hike was delayed by six months due to high inflation and general elections. With the Jul’24 tariff hike in the base, revenue growth for telcos moderated to ₹10% Y-o-Y in Q2FY26 and is set to decline further in Dec’25 in the absence of another tariff hike,” the report noted.

 

"In RIL AGM, that Jio’s IPO is planned for 1HCY26 subject to necessary approvals, we believe, increases the possibility of a ₹15% tariff hike in the telecom business in the next few months (the last tariff hike happened in Jul’24) and improves the visibility of regular tariff hikes thereafter. Also, tariff hike is key to achieve the government’s intent of a 3+1 player market by ensuring VIL’s long-term sustainability,” said analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited in a note.

 

Indian carriers have raised tariffs three times — in December 2019, December 2021 and July 2024 — which has taken blended tariffs up by 30 per cent, 20 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively. Prices of the monthly tariff plans offering 1.5 GB per day have nearly risen by 75-100 per cent, yet data costs remain amongst the lowest in the world.

 

Telcos have been arguing for correction in the pricing structures, where the industry should shift from tariffs remaining constant despite data usage going up to a ‘pay as you use’ structure where customers using more data end up paying more. This, they say, will push the average revenue per user, a quarterly metric which determines profitability of a carrier, besides raising revenue levels and Ebitda.

 

Driven by superior tariff hike flow-through, Bharti and RJio have gained about 900 and about 700 basis points revenue market share, respectively, over the last six years, while Vi has lost about 1,380 basis points RMS during the same period. As of September 2025, Jio, Airtel and Vodafone Idea’s RMS stood at 42 per cent, 39.5 per cent and 13.4 per cent.

 

However, significant relief on adjusted gross revenue dues for Vodafone Idea could lead to a delay in potential tariff hikes, analysts at Motilal Oswal said, adding that if tariff hikes are announced this month, Airtel could significantly close the gap with Jio on RMS by the time the IPO happens. “Given this, RJio may not be comfortable with the #2 position on RMS heading into the IPO, which could delay the tariff hikes,” they added.