Bernstein initiates coverage on Swiggy, Eternal with 'Outperform'; check TP

Bernstein set a target price (TP) of ₹570 for Swiggy and ₹390 for Eternal, calling both companies the best placed to capture value in a competitive but fast-expanding digital consumption landscape.

Bernstein on Swiggy, Eternal: Nashville, US-based brokerage Bernstein has initiated coverage on Indian food delivery majors Swiggy and Eternal (formerly Zomato) with an ‘Outperform’ rating, on the back of strong positioning in the country’s evolving food delivery (FD) and quick commerce (QC) markets. 

 

The brokerage set a target price (TP) of ₹570 for Swiggy and ₹390 for Eternal, calling both companies the best placed to capture value in a competitive but fast-expanding digital consumption landscape.

 

“We initiate coverage on Eternal (TP - ₹390) and Swiggy (TP - ₹570) at ‘Outperform.’ In a large but intensely competitive QC market, Eternal and Swiggy are best placed to replicate their FD success and create significant investor value,” Bernstein analysts Jignanshu Gor, Parth Shah and Dhruv Luthra wrote in a note dated November 3, 2025.

 

At the centre of Bernstein’s thesis lies India’s affluent segment – what it dubs the “Top-5 per cent Lifestyle Concierges.” The brokerage estimates this group of about 70 million Indians, with roughly $20,000 GDP per capita, represents an $80 billion relevant wallet by FY2030. “They are willing to pay for convenience and quality,” the analysts said, noting that sustainable business models will depend on deepening engagement with these consumers and expanding across multiple use cases beyond current offerings.

 

That expansion, Bernstein added, will require innovation, experimentation and investment to tap new growth avenues such as dining out, events, and entertainment ticketing, alongside the existing pillars of quick commerce and food delivery.

 

While the quick commerce segment is seen as a key growth driver, analysts at Bernstein cautioned that competition will remain intense. Its proprietary database pegs the QC market at $35 billion by FY2030, largely taking share from mom-and-pop stores across India’s top 40 cities.   CATCH STOCK MARKET LIVE UPDATES TODAY 

 

However, unlike food delivery, Bernstein does not see the segment as a “winner-takes-all” market. “QC (like most e-retail) has scale effects, not network effects,” it said, arguing that while leaders will enjoy superior profitability, the overall profit pool will be more evenly distributed. The brokerage expects Blinkit, Instamart, and Zepto to maintain their position as the top three players and remain profitable despite the competition.

 

On the other hand, food delivery remains the “cash machine” for both companies. Growth in the segment has moderated below 20 per cent, as the shift from offline to online ordering has largely played out. With food delivery now commanding a 30-50 per cent share in organised, higher average order value (AOV) food services, future expansion will hinge on innovation, including faster delivery, healthier and gourmet offerings, and lower AOV formats. However, Bernstein expects margins to stay ‘range-bound’ even as scale increases.

 

The brokerage also pointed to optionalities, such as dining out, events, and B2B adjacencies like food distribution and logistics enablement, as key to capturing a larger consumer wallet share. Progress in these areas, it noted, will be crucial indicators of execution strength for both Swiggy and Eternal.

 

That said, Bernstein said the two companies are “best placed in India to capture these market trends,” leveraging a combined 20-25 million unique daily active users, strong cash positions, and leadership across FD and QC. 

 

“We believe Swiggy’s Instamart offers a better risk-reward return profile with a potential re-rating as it tracks its profitability glide path,” the brokerage said, naming Swiggy as its top pick.

 

On the bourses around 11:25 AM, Swiggy shares were trading 2.35 per cent higher at ₹412 per share, while Eternal was down 1.46 per cent at ₹317.75 per share. In comparison, BSE Sensex was trading 0.25 per cent lower at 83,766.51 levels.