at 85,221. In the process, the Sensex also logged its 10th straight calendar year gain - up a whopping 226 per cent in the last one decade.
hit a life-time high at 86,159 levels in the year 2025 - up 20.6 per cent when compared to the calendar year low of 71,425. The intra-year Sensex swing (difference between the calendar year's high & low) and the net gain was below the last 10-year average, which stands at 31.4 per cent and 12.8 per cent, respectively.
At current levels, the Sensex stands 14,779 points or 17.3 per cent adrift from the 100,000 milestone. History shows that the BSE Sensex has rallied over 18.7 per cent in three out of the last 10 years, with over 14 per cent gains in 5 out of the last 10 years. The following table shows the best-five gains.
Can history be repeated, and will the Sensex cross 100,000-mark in the calendar year 2026? Here's what market experts have to say:
For Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Sensex at 100,000 mark in 2026 remains achievable provided there is a cyclical upswing and earnings remain supportive.
"The 2025 performance is roughly in line with the 10–15 per cent return expectation. If we see a cyclical pickup in earnings, the Sensex can give another 10 – 15 per cent from here on. That would put the Sensex really close to my long-term target of 100,000," he said in a recent interview.
READ ABOUT IT HERE In a bull-case scenario, analysts at Morgan Stanley see the Sensex at 107,000 mark by December 2026. However, their base-case for the Sensex level by December 2026 is 95,000 levels, to which they have attached 50 per cent probability.
READ THE STORY HERE Similarly, Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited says the Sensex can cross the magical 100,000 mark this year in a bull case scenario.
The market expert says that such an outcome would depend mainly on two developments - a weakening of the AI trade and sustained earnings growth in India. Vijayakumar believes that these two factors would reverse the sustained FII selling witnessed in 2025, and also strengthen the rupee; thus in turn, further attract FII inflows. The analyst believes that India is currently in a Goldilocks zone.
"The Indian economy is presently in a Goldilocks setting with robust economic growth, fiscal consolidation and low inflation. Reforms are in the fast forward mode. Further reforms in the 2026 Budget can facilitate the growth momentum in the economy and corporate earnings are expected to pick up from Q3FY26 onwards," says Vijayakumar.
Echoing a similar view, Nitin Rao, CEO of InCred Wealth says that 2026 is likely to witness a transition from valuation-driven investment returns to earnings growth-driven investment returns.
"The regulatory environment is set to remain conducive, with positive trends in inflationary pressures, besides broadening earnings participation. However, instead of a breakout, equities are seen showing directional improvement," said Rao in a note
Vijay Bhambwani, founder-promoter of Bhambwani Securities Pvt Ltd believes that Sensex hitting 100,000-mark in 2026, could be a touch and go situation; given the amount of money expected to flow in the market.
ALSO READ | Gold, Silver outlook for 2026: Precious metals brace for consolidation "What is happening in the market is money flow coming in - be it the US Pension fund money, the European retirement money or India's National Pension System (NPS)," says Vijay Bhambwani.
Given the anticipation of high inflows, predicting the upside potential can be difficult, says Bhambwani. He cites the perpendicular rally in Gold and Silver prices in 2025 as a clear example of exuberance with money chasing hit commodities.
Among the key risks going into 2026, Vijayakumar, flags a 'tech bubble burst' in the US, unfavourable outcome from the expected US-India trade deal and Corporate India earnings recovery losing steam.
Here's how Sensex is placed on the technical chart:
The daily chart shows that the BSE Sensex has been hovering around its short-term moving averages - the 20-day moving average (20-DMA) and the 50-DMA, which stand at 85,016 and 84,770, respectively, in recent trading sessions.
Further, the Sensex is seen holding above the Supertrend line indicator, which now stands at 83,944. This particular indicator helps in determining the trend for the particular index/ stock. Prices above the Supertrend line are considered as a positive trend and vice versa.
The Sensex is also seen holding comfortably above the longer-term moving averages. The 100-DMA and 200-DMA stand at 83,086 and 81,700, respectively, shows the daily chart.
ALSO READ | Bulls can take Nifty 24% higher to 32,032 levels by Dec 2026: Kotak Sec As per Fibonacci calculations, a 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous year's range suggests that the BSE Sensex can move in a broad range of 76,115 - 94,325 in the calendar year 2026.
Accordingly, the 38.2 per cent and 50 per cent retracement levels on the upside stand at 90,850 and 92,600. Whereas, the same retracement levels on the lower side stand at 79,600 and 77,850, respectively.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the brokerage/ analyst in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
 "Will Sensex hit 100,000 in 2026? Here's what market experts, charts suggest")
