Census 2027 will inform policy, but it could also reshape India's politics

The much-awaited Census formally began on April 1. The decennial Census was due in 2020 but could not be conducted because of the pandemic. However, there is little official explanation for why it was not done after economic activities normalised. Be that as it may, the fact that the process has now started must be welcomed. The need for a regular Census cannot be overemphasised, particularly for a country like India that is growing and changing rapidly. The survey data and analytical models, for instance, suggest that the fertility rate in the country has dropped substantially, and in some states, it has gone below the replacement rate. The final Census data will confirm this. Besides, it is also widely accepted that India is now far more urbanised than what the old official data suggests. On this, the new Census will be able to shed greater light.

 

The Census exercise will be carried out in two phases. The first phase will be a house-listing and housing Census, which will be conducted between April and September over a period of 30 days, depending on the preference of the administration in the state or the Union Territory. Population enumeration will be conducted in the second phase during February 2027. For areas that remain snow-bound in winter, such as those in Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh, this phase will be conducted during September this year. The reference date for the Census will be March 1, 2027. There will be at least two unique features this time. For the first time, self-enumeration will be allowed through a dedicated portal. Second, the exercise will be conducted in a digital format. Officials are of the view that this will make compilation much quicker. They have also reiterated that the data will be protected and not shared with any other government entity.

 

Although the outcome, whenever it is released, will be keenly watched, there are two related issues that need to be handled carefully. One, Census 2027 will also enumerate “caste” for the first time since 1931. Caste is a significant aspect of India’s social structure and carries enormous political relevance. Questions in this aspect have not yet been finalised. The caste aspect of the Census needs to be handled with extreme care from the beginning — questions to be asked and the way answers are recorded. There could be objections from this stage itself. Further, how the final outcome is handled will be critical. There is a possibility that it will be used for political mobilisation with various demands. It will be important to ensure that it doesn’t end up destabilising the social and cultural fabric of the country.

 

Two, the Census can also become the basis for the delimitation of seats in the Lok Sabha. This will enable the implementation of women’s reservation in the legislature. This is again a politically sensitive issue with implications for India’s federal structure. Southern states argue that their representation in the Lok Sabha will come down because of their slow population growth compared to that in northern India. The argument has merit and, thus, a lot will depend on how the delimitation exercise is carried out. In principle, a balance needs to be maintained, and states should not be penalised for effectively containing population growth and improving the standard of living. Thus, from a purely economic standpoint, the Census 2027 data will help both the government and the private sector make informed decisions. However, the politics of it has to be skilfully managed.