Monsoon readiness: Focus must be on both immediate and long-term solutions

The southwest monsoon has had a weak start. Rain during the first half of June was reportedly 35-40 per cent below normal, even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast seasonal rainfall at around 90 per cent of the long-period average. Adding to the concern, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has confirmed the emergence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific, with the possibility of the phenomenon strengthening in the months ahead. However, it is still too early to draw firm conclusions. Much will depend on how the season progresses through July and August, the critical months for kharif sowing. Nonetheless, the early signals warrant close attention.

 

The immediate concern is agriculture. For instance, reports of setbacks to the sowing of pulses such as tur, moong and urad in parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra underline the vulnerability of rainfed farming. Agriculture and allied activates may account for only about 18 per cent of India’s gross domestic product today, but it still supports nearly half the workforce. A weak monsoon can affect rural incomes, employment and consumption demand across large parts of the economy. Significantly, the Reserve Bank of India’s latest monthly bulletin flagged an adverse southwest monsoon as one of the principal domestic risks to both growth and inflation.

 

Food items account for roughly 37 per cent of the new consumer price index basket. The experience of the 2023-24  El Niño episode showed how rain deficits and higher temperatures could translate into persistent pressures on food prices. The retail food-inflation rate has already begun edging up in recent months. A prolonged monsoon shortfall or an unusually warm winter affecting the subsequent rabi crop could add to these pressures. There is, however, little reason for panic at this stage. India enters this season with substantially stronger buffers. Government stocks of wheat and rice are comfortable, while pulses inventories have also improved. Global food supplies are similarly abundant after two consecutive years of bumper harvests. The risk, therefore, could be localised stress. The monsoon question is also inseparable from India’s growing water challenge. Seasonal rainfall replenishes reservoirs, rivers and groundwater aquifers, which support both agriculture and urban consumption. Several cities have faced recurring water shortages in recent years. The problem is increasingly one of storage, recharge and management rather than aggregate precipitation alone.

 

What makes the situation a bit complex is that climate change is altering the relationship between rainfall and outcome. Even in years of near-normal aggregate rainfall, extreme weather events, prolonged dry spells, and short bursts of intense precipitation can damage crops and infrastructure. The distribution of rainfall across regions and time is becoming as important as the seasonal total. Policy preparedness, therefore, becomes critical. While comfortable food stocks provide a cushion, wider use of local weather forecasts, timely crop advisories, drought-resistant seed varieties and short-duration crops can help reduce losses. Equally important is investment in water conservation, groundwater recharge, and the restoration of local water bodies. India is better equipped than before to withstand a weak monsoon. But resilience over time will depend more on how effectively the climate change is managed.